Bitcoin. Price logic

2021年7月8日

Recently, the Bitcoin situation has been tightening like a string. In this review, I will describe thoughts from the point of view of logic, since there are very interesting reflections on the situation, despite the technical analysis.

It is very important sometimes to look at the chart without personal expectations, removing emotions and feelings of anticipation, even turning off the indicators. Just see what you would do if you could “manage” the market and know the mood and expectations of the crowd.
This is what will be discussed now.

BUT

As always happens in the market - the more everyone waits for an upward exit - the more and more painful the downward movement will be.
Is it so? Let's check

But at this moment we can observe the following picture:
On the 22nd there was a strong impulse at the bottom, which was quickly bought back. And since then, the lows have been constantly increasing, forming a support trend line, while the highs remain approximately the same, at the level of 35000-35500. On June 29, I published an idea describing the formation of an ascending triangle (when everyone saw an immediate rise after a double bottom), at the moment it is almost formed.

One of the important things to look at is volumes. We see that the volumes are quite low, the entire flat is now in a sluggish state and this is due to the stupid expectations of traders in which direction to enter.

But the idea is that if everyone sees the triangle, if everyone understands and thinks that we will break through this triangle up, then can you imagine what kind of liquidity is behind the trend?

You can draw a lot on the chart, use all sorts of indicators, but in this post, thoughts about the situation in general. It would look very logical to take out stops, take out liquidity, shake everyone out of the market before the expected jump.
This is exactly what happened on the 15th of June, when everyone was loudly shouting about 44,000-46,000.

And now the price has gone down to 33000. And what do we see? There is no big run-out of liquidity so far, which means there is a greater likelihood that the price will rush there, and this is in the region of 28000-30000.

While everyone is dreaming of breaking through 35,000 and a march to 40,000, we were gaining positions. From these positions you need to shake out.
If you manage a large fund and know the mood of the crowd, you would do just that: create a false belief in imminent growth, the illusion of imminent success, and you would take advantage of it.
There is also a factor that many have lost on previous recent unpredictable moves and quite a few traders have suffered heavy losses. What happens then? The emotional attitude is this: you need to return the lost money.
It is for this reason that everyone is so fiercely anticipating and longing for this growth that they are confident in. Everyone is sure.

In conclusion, I would like to add that this post is a reflection. You can agree with this or not, believe it or not, but think, abstracting from your own expectations, what is the most logical thing for MM to do now, knowing the expectations of most people?

Thanks for attention:)

P.S. In the idea, which I published on my channel, I described two situations, since having reached the price either there or there, it would open either Short or Long.
There was a breakdown of the trend line formed at that time (now it is possible to draw a new one), but in any case, I wrote that upon breakdown I would enter Short.
Which I did: I entered the Short position and at the moment I am still in it.

P.S.P.S. If you want to follow my assessment of the market, my thoughts or my actions - join :)