Bitcoin consolidation. Short/long opportunity. Risky.

已更新

I'm going to focus more on day trading now, I just lose my mind when I don't. I am still going to take longer term trades, but these will stay in the background mostly.

My outlook longer term is still bearish because that's what the chart is telling. We are in a rising wedge as you can see, and tightened in a range (the day is a doji).
On a break we'll go either direction. Since we're overbought and have many resistances right above us I won't go long on a break above, on a break below I would go short with a target of 1400$ below the breakout point, & long the pullback if RSI is low enough, and we're near a support. I'll be extra careful here and not risk too much, as we are still in a downtrend unless we go past 9177.

On the way down these are potential reversal points to be wary of:

And also this line on the linear scale:

I think the log trendlines are overratted on the zoomed in chart. Linear more important. And zoomed out, log matters more for obvious reasons.

Personally that's how I'll do it: on Kraken the longer term positions, on Bitmex the day trading I can never lose more than what's in even if hell breaks loose (day trading = looking for smaller moves & shouldn't take big losses). Probably will use isolated margin there.

+++ This is not financial advice +++

註釋

Dropped out of a rising wedge within the rising wedge.
If it goes down from here both the longs and the shorts will have gotten rekt.

註釋

Playing with that $9000 again.

註釋

Lost the higher high higher low on the smaller TF but hasn't gone into a downtrend either. Now tightened up. We have slight bearish divergence also.
The daily, for now, is a doji star, inside the range of the previous day.
Doji star at the top of an uptrend + overbought on 12HR.
Sorry but my assessment is going to be - IF sunday closes like this - there is a high probability of bearish reversal for the next few days.

Now I don't know if the probability is higher when the candle is all by itself up there and lower when it's below the close of the mother bar or not.

But don't take my word for it, here are unbiased lessons sites:
candlestickforum.com/PPF/Parameters/12_221_/candlestick.asp

Anyway if we break under 8616 I expect some downside. Possibly to ~7500 since that's the target of the rising wedge but there's some supports in between (around 8300 and 7900 if I'm not mistaken) so it's random whether we'll reach that or not, wilml have to follow the trade closely.

If we break above (9069), the price should go test 9300 where MA100 is, and then enter the 9500 resistive area. I'd expect it to stop going up short term at 0.618 gibo which is 9680 or so. This is a no trade for me, we're overbought and I don't long overbought don't short oversold maybe miss out but I don't care that's how I roll.

註釋

To push the price past 9000$ from 8900 on Gdax alone it would take a 350 BTC buy.
To do it on the major exchanges what's that going to cost? 3500 BTC to make sure so over 30MM. Don't think it would happen at the top with a doji no retrace yet and overbought. If I was a whale I wouldn't risk it.
I want to be a whale with 10k BTC purchasing power. When the volume is really low and we're at the bottom... kaboom!
I wish I was a whale. There's no rules in crypto against that yet.
Who's big enough to do this thought? I imagine they wouldn't risk their whole fortune. So who can it be? Guys like Soros? A group of ealry adopters that all buy 10%? Exchanges themselves?

Even if I become I whale they'll be regulations by then.

Little bit of bearish divergence here.

註釋

*bullish.
Hidden.

註釋

Zooming in, lost the higher low.
Good thing i'm impervious to all the endless shilling.

Daily still inside candle, inside a doji which supposidely is bearish.

Level to hold is 8616.

註釋

I'm afk. Got alerts if we break out of consolidation.
Let's see if the trendline we lost a few weeks ago holds as support now we're above it.
That line reaches 30k at the end of 2018 I'm sure the bull hodlerss would love this...
Just hodl and get lucky BS.

The same thing that happened with the previous trendline picture below could happen again. Otherwise if we go up the upper trendline is far away maybe 10500 now and 11k in a few days I think this one is lost forever even in a super bullish scenario.
We consolidated alot in the 6500-7500 region so it should prevent a big flush like when previous line was tested as resistance and rejected, if we go down.
Logically there's alot of support there.
I pictured the supports, approximately 8300, 7800, 7000 (but even 6500-7500 as a whole I'd say). The resistances haven't changed.

註釋

Shorting on MA 100 or longing on MA50 both good opportunities.
If MA50 gets to 0.5 fib which is in the 7700-7800 support region, it's just perfect.
This market is very emotional and bipolar, so risk management is numero uno.
Never more than all in 25 leverage ;)

註釋

Looking at 50 days ago, unless we move up alot to make up for what we will lose, the MA 50 will fall "sharply" (as much as a couple of -10% days out of 50 can make it drop)

註釋

Warning: I wouldn't long on MA50 if it's not in an area I like. If it is it's good because it increases the odds (see it as 1% more chance to win or whatever).
80% is based on horizontal price level, 7.5% on fibo, 7.5% on inside candle, then 5% of MA50 & trendlines and pure chaos.

註釋

If BTC doesn't come to MA then MA will come to it!
Since we're consolidated under it and not just running into, this doesn't mean insta rejection.

Zooming in, getting 4HR IB bull breaks with small follow up, it's still in the daily range from saturday. Slightly staying above the low of the rising wedge, but staying under the high of saturday. It's going to have to choose soon!

註釋

Getting closer to point of no return.
All traders on the side pissing themselves waiting so they can miss it and FOMO in and lose money anyway.

註釋

It's clearly reacting to that line. Right?

註釋

Bear break, but will it have follow up?

註釋

Soooo... Now that the sunny wheather that drove every one crazy euphoric (except me) has passed does this mean we stop going up? rofl.
Oversold bounce on the 5 minute.
Wouldn't surprise me if traders are emotional and want BTC to keep going up because they saw a green candle and won't let go, rather than stick to the trend whatever that may be.

註釋

I wonder if I could make a dumb bot that buys every time the 5min rsi goes to 20, and sell at 1% bounce.
Leave it alone for a year with $1000, see what happens.

I hope BTC moves soon I have a system to test on bitmex.

註釋

Sure is playing with 8900.

On the linear chart we barely went under the wedge and then back up, I was on the log chart previously, wupsy dupsy.

註釋

Is it going to close the day in perfect equilibrium with the other days?
If it doesn't go up at some point it will be under the wedge.

How you're supposed to trade inside candles: long on break above, short on break below.
How I will trade this inside candle: short on break above, long on break below.
Don't do what I do (unless you want to).
I'm so done. People keep getting scammed, for some reason I keep thinking "nah this can't last they won't keep falling for it", but it never changes. So I'm going to join the fun and scame them hehehe.
Or just go for rsi bounces. Depends how much it moves.
Orders are set on bitmex. GN!

註釋

Bull break. testing MA100 now.

I set short orders. 9300-10000.

註釋

I want to move orders a bit, but the FOMO traders I'm trying to scam are overloading the system. :'(

註釋

In the middle of the rising wedge (vertically).
Daily getting close to oversold.
I'm shorting looking at a few % gains, I'll open a longer term swing trade if BTC goes to 11k.
But 9500 to 9900 and 10300 are pretty good spots to short could give some profit, just not as good to open long term than 11k imo.

註釋

I take comfort seeing every impulse is weaker.
Maybe I can close the loss I've been chasing for a while XD
I want it to go a bit higher I still got short orders to fill up there (for the shorter term).

Risk management update: I think I only open a swing trade looking at 30% moves or more if I get the perfect entry, like 11k with overbought af RSI would be just perfect, and miss it otherwise.
And focus on trading smaller moves otherwise make consistent gains, day trading to intraweek at most.
Good strat?

交易進行

Short on Bitmex on, entry 9250. Used 20% of my PP there.
Got orders ready up there 9500 and beyond. I'll set up more if we keep going up later, after I checked where are resistances exactly.
Why is bitmex changing my leverage... Will have to be careful lol.

Not being greedy just looking for few percent gains.
I need to make consistent profit to short big time if we go all the way to 11k hehehexd

註釋

Here is some speculation.
If we top at 9600-9700 we can be expected with good odds a significant pullback.
Wave 3 could just keep going higher too...

註釋

I guess that scenario is where bears won't get to short at 11-12k and bulls will be surprised every body loses... Ye so it's highly likely it happens, right?

註釋

At the top of the rising wedge. Will it break bullish? Will it go down?
Stay tuned to find out!
The 4HR RSI is super high, but the shorter TF are not, so I'm keeping my bitcoin to short higher (I think I used about 20% to short at 9300+ by now) most is at 9500+.

註釋

Getting closer to 0.618 fib. Can we actually get a decent pullback this time?
Not just some 5-6%?

註釋

Took my first loss that wasn't because I was at work or something, hate it.
I spent hours doing spreadsheets XD
Let's see if I lose now.
I think I'll start a post with my trades see what my winrate is :)

Ok Bitcoin getting into shorting area.
I'm only going to look for a 5% drop which is highly probable.

註釋

Aaaah it's going up too fast I don't have time to run calculations and see if a 10% or more profit short is guarenteed!
Halp me!

註釋

Ok so from what I looked at, dozens of cases... 4HR RSI doesn't mean jack...
BTC doesn't get more than 5% retraces just because 4HR RSI is way up there.
Daily matters thought. At least 10% when it's above 70.
Guess because people look at it rofl.
Self fulfilling prophecy.

Resistances and supports matter more than anything else.
My heade hurts lol.

註釋

Short entry moved up 9480.
I want to sleep but it's moving now...
I feel it's going to wake me uuup!

註釋

Alert did not wake me up...
I guess next time I have to use the beep beep nightmare in case the first alarm doesn't wake me up.
I would have closed normally here and make a small profit...
I received some funding muahahaha.
Let's see what happens next.

註釋

Should have closed normally...
Well waiting on next move now...when it leaves the range 9200-9750.
These are the leevls I'm watching:

註釋

Ok I think we have a little while before next move. Only bots and scalpers left now.
Ready to trade once BTC leaves the inside candle.

交易結束：目標達成

Closed my short at 9101$ (entry was 9465 last time I checked, maybe it went higher idk).
Looking to long in the $$$ boxes (very unlikely BTC goes in the 8600-9000 box without bouncing but if it happens I'll scale i n the next one...):

Also looking at moving averages and trendlines.

I'm all in XBT on Bitmex now, so if we go up I win and I'll short and win, if we go down I'll long x10-15 and probably win too.

註釋

The amount of Bitcoin I had on Bitmex grew by 20% actually rofl.
Bought it at 8800$ originally. This doesn't remove the pain and the dirt from the short I opened at the bottom and executed so badly (busy with irl stuff).

註釋

Wanted to tweek my buys but there's big red candles so the sheep are all selling at the same time and the system is overloaded :'(

註釋

Brain dead perma bull noobs now panic selling I can't modify my orders...
I wanted to reduce slightly the first ones...

註釋

Now testing the trendline it broke thought the past days as support.
Shall it not hold there's the MA50 and downtrend line at 8100 ish, but also plenty of support in the way between.

交易進行

Level broke. Now testing as support.

Got filled at 8850 on average. Wanted to have a lower average but "our engine is overloaded".

Also, 1HR inside candle saw a bull break, didn't get much follow up but that's what always happen.

I must have a slight bias towards bullish in the short term (next few hour/hours) the odds of going up are slightly higher when IB bull breaks even, if there's a pullback.
Idk what the percentages are thought.

手動結束交易

It's consolidated testing levels not sure where it goes, so I exited as I don't gamble.
Will scale in long again if it goes down 8700, otherwise I'll wait for 9700 before shorting.
On Bitmex I'm cashed out in Bitcoin so even if it goes up I won't miss out, and we're at a bottom already down 10% if we go down I can go long a bounce is more likely the lower we go especially we got 7800-8400 supprot region soon.

註釋

Tbh I went in too big wasn't paying much attention that's why I closed XD
Site was "overloaded" so I couldn't reduce order sizes...

註釋

Ok watch out for the 4HR inside candle, bull or bear break should result in BTC moving a couple hundred $.
Possible tommorow is entirely contained within today's range.
Right now I'm not trading while we're in that wide range for the next few days.

註釋

uuuh lost the higher low already.
If I was (still) long that's when I would have exited.

註釋

5 minute oversold bounce in progress.
We already went down so much today... I hope BTC consolidates in the next hours, want to sleep rofl...

註釋

Got a lower low and lower high on the 1HR.
During the night I actually bought a small amount at 8666 sold

註釋

My buy zone is now 7800-8500
Only buying small in 8200-8500. Biggest orders 7800-8200.

註釋

Preparing for the worse... Not saying it happens but sure won't ignore it.

註釋

Ah ye, when wepassed the downtrend we haven't retested it as support, maybe that is necessary.

註釋

Long target reached, no trade to be made on Bitcoin or any other crypto (silly BTC dictating the rest).

Went beyond the target of the falling wedge.
If the rising wedge target is reached that would be 7500 mm idk if that one is legit. Anyway I'll long 7800-8400 and be very careful in case it goes down further, lock in profit at a few percent and close my long if it goes down, reopen lower.

Plenty of supports around 8100-8200 right now.

註釋

Closed the short I opened at 9500$ but technically there is still potential to the downside.

onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/Candlesticks/BearishEngulfing.html

I feel I'd better move my longs a bit lower rofl...
Also I'm looking at the chart on the 1HR seing if we start a small uptrend or consolidate.
I'm considering opening a hedge short right now...

註釋

Since the higher low got lost on the 5 minute uptrend my conclusion is the 1 HR high has been set and it's a lower high. So higher low lower high...
Day might close a doji. Rofl I shorted at the top didn't even do it on purpose.
I'm trying to find more info on bearish engulfings, I want to long the dip but have to scale correctly not use 70% to buy at 8400 and then it goes down to 7500 and I'll be
at a loss...

註釋

100 BTC question: What happened every time Bitcoin had a bearish engulfing at the top of an uptrend? (Only needs the body to engulf the other one to be called a bearish engulfing - in this week case the whole candle absorbs the other one, bonus)

Doesn't mean it's going to 4000$ in the next 2 weeks, just most of the time it goes down a bit to alot. And when it goes down alot it doesn't simply fall 30% without bouncing at least 5% at some point.

註釋

Rofl someone just took a hot warm sticky dump on every one

註釋

Retracing up now.
I'm shorting for 1/3 of my bitmex account now as a hedge, if it goes to 0.618 fibo I hedge short for my entire account, so if it goes up I don't make money but if it goes down I don't lose anything either.

註釋

Nah I just shorted a bit more.
Waiting for 9300+ to hedge is just greedy. My account is now 80% hedged.
Going up giving me free money is nice but I want to be cashed out and wait for next trading opportunity.

註釋

Why did Bitcoin go up?
Probably the reason is the 4HR inside candle bull break.

註釋

What's going on on bitfinex? this a joke?

註釋

Someone dumped a whole lot of BTC then it bounced with stops then it spiked up (bots buying on price sheer?) then shorts got stopped and he dumped BTC again then it bounced again then he dumped BTC again it just happened in seconds I'm glad I watched the chart at that exact moment.
It was so wtf going back and forth 500$ a second.
I hope someone made a clip of that