BTCUSD: Last rally started...

$BTCUSD is rallying again, the signals on chart point to a rally to 6900 to 9750 by the end of November or sooner. I'm holding BTC in my crypto account, but also trading $ETHUSD with leverage. Currently, I think we can take a few shorter term long trades with margin but we'd need a dip to present itself in the next few days. Most people have been interestingly bearish before this breakout, which gave me peace of mind holding longs. At the top we might see the most intense bullishness present itself in the media, public opinion, social media, everywhere...be ready to sell and sell short once we do top, cause things can get ugly, after completing a long term rally, as per Time @ Mode.
We could see a bear market last for 10-20 months after 2018 starts, not a good prospect.

It was clear to me that as investors seek to benefit from the airdrops in Bitcoin , they would start buying BTC with all other alts, and cover shorts to do so. For example, the Bitcoin Gold fork, would force investors to withdraw funds from exchanges. In the case of the 2x fork, Bitfinex already claimed they will grant you a balance in the new fork once available, for all spot and margin holdings you may have in BTC . This can create a lack of liquidity and a rush to buy BTC , with all you got going into the snapshot date, and given the enormous short positioning we had, a short squeeze rally, which I think already started. It's probably accurate to say very few -like us- saw this coming.

Best of luck,

Ivan Labrie.

PS: If interested in benefitting from my insights and trade reccomendations on a real time basis, message me for access to my trading services.
評論: And, inb4 I get flamed for calling a bear market...
評論: But firt, flamed for calling a bull run...haha.
評論: We bought to add on the dip, filled at 5237.4

評論: Fixed the fork date in $BTCUSD: This gives us room to go over 9k before the fork.
評論: Altcoin death continues... Very clear rally in the ratio of BTC's market cap vs the top altcoins' market cap chart.
手動結束交易: I banked at 6420 for now.

Significant chance we topped...I went short, had a stop hit first but reshorted at 7000 give or take. Lost like 1% on the failed short first.
評論: I managed to cover my short at minimal profit before this last push up...Now watching, it isn't clear if we will go straight up for a few more days, but sentiment spells danger. Safest bet, since I'm flat, is to wait in cash for a clear top signal. Need time to process all information, the BCH fork for example, or whatever happens with ETH, which isn't really clear yet.
We entered a difficult to trade phase again. It was a walk in the park for me, since we bottomed at 3000+-
評論: I think we might be seeing a peak in sentiment around here, we might get a consolidation, and then more upside after the fork. I will wait for a clear uptrend continuation setup, and a drop in sentiment to bearish levels again, ideally while price is sideways...

評論: Clarification: if we go sideways/down, and people's recent rush of bullishness cools down, I will go long again. If not, we might have already peaked.
交易進行: I covered my BTC shorts and went long with 10% at 6475.
great call as usual Ivan! thumb up ;)
Price follows a similar pattern as the previous 2 legs up did; There was a top, followed by a retracement after which a new high was made about 10 days after the retracement bottomed. After this new high there was a bigger correction. Let's see if this happens again in the next days...
@plok, this type of analysis is too 'anecdotal' to be of any use...cycles, fractals, all bound to trick you into believing in recency bias.
Better have a proper methodology for this.
plok IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, thanks for the reply. It wasn't meant as an analysis, more a general observation. Although I find fractals quite interesting, I agree with you that it is definitely not possible to trade just based on the belief that history would repeat itself, though it often 'rhymes'.

As to having a trading methodology, that is something I really need to dig into deeply. I'm not a trader myself, but highly interested. Made a few not so successful attempts in the past, basically due to lack of knowledge and not having any plan...
@plok, hi! Yes, fractals and cycles look good many times, but aren't too profitable to trade...more like a 'guess'.
Start by checking out the 'Key Hidden Levels' chatroom here: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#c8BzrhGRvXxGXWnJ
plok IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, very interesting posts and discussions going on over there. I'm following Tim west as well. Unfortunately I don't have much to add to the table in that chat room...
what is your stop for the long :-O
IvanLabrie fineregex
@fineregex, I reserve these details for my clients...don't want to announce it to everyone to see ;)
fineregex IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, i wont copy an exact number but i assumed a tight/near stop in this situation
Hi Ivan, what do you make of the latest price developments? Very keen on hearing your thoughts, as I'm quite lost tbh...
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