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#BTCUSD: Update - Coinbase IPO, new institutional buyers...

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Weekly trend in Bitcoin is about to confirm here, either going a tad higher or by this week's close. Daily is already trending up for a while, so the odds of this confirming are extremely high. We are already long from previous publications, but the continuation signals and pullback entries give us low risk chances to add or estimate where to trim exposure before corrections.

Coinbase is set to debut in the stock market today, and we had news of new institutional entrants recently, I think a big short squeeze is forming here. We had some huge volumes in the recent dip, only seen in CME charts when prices crashed on April 7th. There was also persistent selling at the 59-60k area for many weeks in a row since the top at 61k during March.
This persistent selling at practically the same price created a cluster of orders that were filled in the same area near the top of the range. This tells me the sellers kept hitting this area until they ran out of ammo, then tried pushing further on April 7th and lost the plot since. Buyers are now trapping them, they tried to corner the market and failed, and will get squeezed next.

Targets are where I think prices will land in the next few weeks, after which we might get another consolidation and correction, with downside volatility of 20-30% being highly likely after May 30th.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

註釋

CME chart for reference:

Monthly time expires by end of June there, not sure it is a big concern since it lacks data from before CME launched at the top of the last cycle. I wouldn't think too much about it being a long term top there, but I will monitor this by the time this weekly trend expires.

註釋

Some short term weakness, but the weekly signal is likely still valid. I expect to see some momentum to the upside after today's close...

Then we continue to trace my forecasted targets' path.

交易結束：達到停損點

Price moved back below 57k, erasing the weekly uptrend signal.

註釋

Question is what happens next, do Europeans buy the dip in a big way and Americans move it even higher during tomorrow once CME is active? I'm not confident here. We moved a long way since the long term signal kicked in, technically it should move higher over time, but for that we need some signs of strength in shorter term charts like weekly and daily. I'm not certain currently. If prices hold up for a few hours, we could be about to rebound and potentially recover. Correction was 21% ish after all, and that is what most corrections have been from peak to trough in this cycle.

交易進行

Bought back spot, 55798

手動結束交易

Stopped @ 53500
If not above 56k we might be about to tank big time...

註釋

Big time flop here, but interesting if we do retest the level where the buying news were first known by market participants, around 42k.

There's a chance the bull market in risk on assets is over with Biden's proposal news today. Hiking taxes on the wealthy to 43.6% is certainly a huge risk factor, and markets response is a big selloff that doesn't look to have ended yet.