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+95% of Alt-Coins are going to $0 (BTC headed lower from here)

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On April 12th, 2018, I had the opportunity to sit down with the CEO of VeChain, Sunny Lu. We had about an hour conversation.

When I got home, here's what I wrote on Seeking Alpha and my FB for my followers/friends:

"Met with the CEO of VeChain (Cryptocurrency: VEN) recently on Sand Hill Road. Very fascinating developments in the smart contracts / Blockchain space. We are definitely in the very early inning of cryptocurrency revolution. Few things that I took away from this meeting:

1. Bitcoin really isn't that efficient. Transaction speed and cost are too high (and forks like Bitcoin Cash are not solving this issue).

2. Most of the Alt-Coins out there will likely fade away (there are coins that have over market cap and don't even have a real CFO).

3. Governance and regulations are welcomed when you have a real platform. Coins that shy away from this will fail.

5. Blockchain technology is going to reshape every industry (especially areas like banking, real estate, hospitals, venture capital, etc.)

4. Smart contract platforms like Etherium and VEN are likely to be the real winners in this space (streamlined, scalable, solving real
problems, etc.)

As Sunny shared his vision of VEN's capabilities at scale (he ultimately envisioned an open source platform that developers could continuously improve on), it became evident to me that we weren't just in the early-stages of the crypto-boom, we haven't even scratched the surface. In parallels to the dot.com bubble of 2000, we are in 1994 (if not earlier).

I asked Sunny: "What's your take on the fact that there are over ~1500 different Alt-Coins?"

His response was effectively: "Many Alt-Coins have granular "white papers" and promises/dreams of what can be accomplished, but the road to get there will be long and many ideas will never get to a real beta-stage. Many of the top 20 Alt-Coins don't even have a real CFO."

Many of the white papers that I've read all had the same narrative: promising a platform that is decentralized, better, faster, cheaper than the rest; a new internet, a financial system, etc. Yet, there was every little evidence of a real world application/use-case. Given their early-stage of development, I wondered how any Alt-Coin could be worth more than $1! Even Sunny admitted prices were extremely inflated.

It was evident that the coins that ran-up from $1 to $30 (think Nano), were massively overvalued -- these were unsustainable moves caused by people buying into a "promise," and more evidently, it was all FOMO based. The crypto-subreddit on Alt-Coins should be a huge lesson for all investor - it should be put in finance 101 courses on how to spot a bubble (most of it was kinda hilarious tbh).

Very similar to the dot.com bubble where all you had to say was "I have a website" and your stock went up +300% virtually overnight, in the crypto world all you had to say "I have the most revolutionary blockchain technlogy" and your coin skyrocketed. The parallels are staggering.

I walked away from that meeting reminded about something Warren Buffet had said: "if I could buy a 5-year put on every crypto-currency, I'd do it."

At the time of this meeting, VeChain was trading at about $4. Today it's at $1.5. Coins like IOT was trading at $1.5, today it's at $0.65. Nano went from $6 to $1.3 today, etc.

Since then, TechCrunch released a report on June 30, 2018 showing that more than 1000 crypto projects were "already dead."
cointelegraph.com/news/techcrunch-over-1000-crypto-projects-are-considered-dead-now
deadcoins.com/

I post this because as crypto continues on in this bear market, I continue to see many posts/ideas here on Trading View where people are saying to "buy this dip."

I'm here to say, most of these Alt-Coins are still massively overvalued and are going lower. I suspect 95% of Alt-Coins are going to $0.

Sure many might bounce back, I'm personally positive long-term on smart contract platforms such at ETH, VET, NEO, etc., but it's still too early to jump in -- especially if you assume Bitcoin is going a lot lower from here (which I do suspect is the case).

As far as Bitcoin goes, just as Sunny mentioned (and Goldman Sachs mentioned last Friday), it fails at many of the things it was meant to solve. This is why BTC-Cash and other spin-offs came out, to address the issue. Yet, as of now, no coin has offered a real solution. This is in part why the entire crypto-space continues to sell off.

Ultimately, I know we are moving to a purely digital-currency. But I think we are a long way from that point (1994). Will it be Bitcoin that we all use? I have no idea, but from what I can tell, looking at the data/research, it seems unlikely that it will be the broadly adopted in its current form. It's very likely that the once regulations are in place and the Fed gets more involved, there will emerge a new coin, say Bitcoin 2.0 that will be issued to the public (it won't be a decentralized platform that Satoshi Nakamoto originally envisioned). The new "regulated" coin is the one I want to buy.

(Google FedCoin and read the white papers from 2014).

Just to reiterate my current view on Bitcoin, right now $5,800 is the level to watch. If it can't hold this level and sustain a run from there (volume will be key to monitor), in all likelihood, Bitcoin will test ~3K. I imagine that's the point of extreme pessimism, no one would be willing to step in, retail investors will give up -- that's the moment the Big Boys (institutional investors) will be interested in stepping in.

As a technical trader that understands Wall Street, i've seen this play out many times. After all, it was Baron Rothschild that is credited with saying that "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."

People are still far too optimistic at this point, blood hasn't spilled.

Just my personal take. Hope you enjoyed reading. Would love to hear your thoughts, ideas, analysis.

Good luck to all.

Action: Sell Bitcoin, sell Alt-Coins.

註釋

I always analyze markets from many perspectives, industries, timeframes, data points, etc. (can't analyze Bitcoin in a vacuum -- which I see a lot of on Trading View).

Just wanted to share a small data-point here:

Today crypto-chip maker NVDA reported Q2 earnings, which beat Wall Street's expectations but the CEO gave disappointing guidance for Q3; partially due to crypto-related OEM revenue drop. Why is this important? Because of what this large chip player is seeing in the crypto mining space:

“Our revenue outlook had anticipated cryptocurrency-specific products declining to approximately $100 million, while actual crypto-specific product revenue was $18 million,” Kress said in prepared remarks. “Whereas we had previously anticipated cryptocurrency to be meaningful for the year, we are now projecting no contributions going forward.” marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-says-crypto-mining-boom-is-over-for-now-2018-08-16

If anyone follows this company, you would know that at the beginning of the year (2018), crypto-mining was seen as a huge catalyst (for all chip makers) -- propelling the stock higher based on the sentiment. However, as the price of BTC continues to decline, it's very interesting to see them change their tune. Wall Street didn't take the news lightly with shares down ~5% in the after-hours.

The next couple of days should be a very interesting day in terms of how investors feel about not only this company (which is still firing on all cylinders) but also the crypto space in general. Analysts are going to come out over the next few days and update their price target based on the exclusion of any crypto-related revenue (I suspect this will impact chip-makers like AMD as well).

Overall, I see this is a bearish signal for what it says about crypto-mining in the short-term.

Interestingly, in my recent talks with institutional investors/fund managers, it's clear that for the most part, everyone anticipates BTC going lower from here (I mean, you really don't need to be a technician to see the overall trend).

Yes, some institutional money wants in -- but they want in at much lower prices.

As Bitcoin consolidates here, I'm already seeing the "BUY NOW" articles/ideas, but I'm here to say -- please don't buy this dip unless you plan on trading very short-term.

I'll leave you with this -- In my view, this is how Wall Street (who now largely controls BTC price action) truly feels about Bitcoin right now (poor Brian Kelly):

"there's just no value there" -- Bill Harris
(echo's Goldman Sach's comments a couple weeks ago).
cnbc.com/2018/08/14/ex-paypal-ceo-theres-just-no-value-in-bitcoin.html

Even if you are ultra-bullish on BTC -- these data point influence price action more than you might assume.

Would love to keep the discussion go and hear your thoughts, ideas, analysis, etc.

Cheers!
tradingview.com/chart/nImdw4p4/

註釋

Before I provide a quick update on Bitcoin's price action/levels to watch, let me clarify something: I think it's dumb not to own any crypto-assets. According to my thesis, ~5% of Alt-Coins will survive, do the math.

I advise everyone to do some homework and select a few coins you believe in. I tell people at this point it's nothing more than a gamble on the future because ultimately we moving to a digital currency -- which "coin" we will use is up for debate.

I can't tell you how many early crypto-adopters, pioneers, founders, and investors, I know/read about that have drastically different perspectives on which coin(s) we will use (all making very good points). LTC holders say no way it's BTC; NANO holders say no way its LTC, or BTC, or any of the others, etc. Truth is, none of us know. We can only speculate and cast our net wide.

Crypto's make up about ~1% of my overall portfolio. I have names like BTC, ETH, LTC, NEO, VET, NANO, XRP, IOTA, ICX, XLM, etc. I fully expect most of these crypto-assets will to go to $0 for many of the reason I mentioned above (I bought most of these long before my meeting with Sunny). If they don't go to $0, awesome. Either way, it's not a big gamble and it's worth taking.

Anwho, back to Bitcoin --

From a technical perspective, while the overall trend is to the downside, a short-term bounce to ~$7,500-$8,500 is very possible leading into the SEC Bitcoin ETF decision next month. However, the key to remember is that a 'Bitcoin ETF' doesn't solve any of the inherent issues that Bitcoin faces (including the entire crypto-space), in the same way, that the CBOE Futures contracts didn't.

To be honest, the worst thing that could have happened to Bitcoin is letting Wall Street/SEC get hodl of it. Retail investors I suspect will get hurt the most with a Bitcoin ETF -- don't be fooled. Wall Street wants to sell you a product so they can profit on both ends. They don't care about the Satoshi revolution.

Just keep in the back of your mind that very powerful people and organizations (think Fed/global central banks) are betting against crypto-asset. We are in the very early innings of this war. Hard to say who will win, but it's important to understand who the real players are in this chess game -- the kings, queens, knights, and bishops, etc. The pwans right now are retail investors and the "Bitcoin religion" movement that doesn't understand that the differences between a powerful idea, implementation, and simply making money.

History can provide many lessons (at least for me): Socrates, Joan of Arc, Che Guevara, Malcolm X all sparked a revolution by bringing powerful ideas to the world -- but they were all put to death/assassinated. It's the ideas remain (Bitcoin is the idea).

I'm just here to make sure we all keep an eye out for the snipers (and be wary of the Bitcoin Religious movement). I suspect another dead-cat-bounce is coming very soon. Long-term, I think 3K- is more likely to test first before a healthy advance to new ATH can take place. I'd be a buyer as we approach those levels.

And to be clear, I will change my view if the charts, data, research, etc. warrant it. It's important to remove emotions and try to be as objective as possible. It's what makes me good at trading stocks.

Remember the most ultra-conservative crypto-bull expect Bitcoin to be at least at by the end of the year. I'm saying if that happens, it's highly probable that the Big Short 2.0 will happen. Just my personal take as a trader - I already know plenty of people who are far more interested in shorting the first BTC-ETF as retail investors flock in.

Interesting times, love to hear your feedback, commentary/analysis below.

Cheers!
tradingview.com/chart/nImdw4p4/

註釋

Today's pullback is almost perfectly in-line with my trend line (blue). Just so happens that this coincides with the Goldman Sachs news of dropping plans for the trading desk for cryptocurrencies. cnbc.com/2018/09/05/bitcoin-falls-after-goldman-reportedly-drops-crypto-trading-plans.html

Above I said: "Even if you are ultra-bullish on BTC -- these data point influence price action more than you might assume."

Again, I firmly believe that Wall Street and the SEC largely influence this entire space. It's very likely the ETF will not be approved this month.

Technicals:

Breaking above $7,500 is the key level to break this short-term rally to continue. For a sustained long-term rally, the level to watch is $8,500. For this bull run to continue, Bitcoin needs to close above the 50-day moving average. If not, this will serve as resistance and the path back down to 5.8K is in place. I suspect this will be the case.

If you're trading Bitcoin (from 5.8K to here), my advice, take your gain.

Action: Short Bitcoin

註釋

On August 9th, 2018, when I first published this idea, I wrote: "I'm here to say, most of these Alt-Coins are still massively overvalued and are going lower."

I wrote this at a time when about +90% of analysts/authors on Trading View (the ones with very elegant charting in all) were saying it's time to "load up because a HUGE move is higher coming!"

Indeed a huge move has occurred.

Today, September 5th, 2018, Alt-Coins are getting completely crush - ETH is down ~20%, XRP down 16%, IOTA is down 18%, LTC down 14%, etc. Makes you wonder why that is...seems like an excessive move? Not really...again, last year's run-up was just parabolic, this is the result of FOMO in reverse. Plus, people are just starting to realize the lack of utility of most coins.

I'm sure many authors are going to come out over the next few days and say now is the time to pick these names up even "cheaper"....I'm just writing again to say, I believe there will be a time to buy, but we aren't even close to that point (blood still needs to spill). Don't buy this "dip."

Remember, from a technical perspective, Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. Unless we see a sharp bounce back and start to move past $8,500 over the next few weeks, I suspect Bitcoin is going much lower...for longer (it consolidates and moves sideways at best).

Two key reasons why I think Bitcoin is going lower from here: (i) The SEC/Wall Street is in control and they aren't impressed 'yet' (Goldman threw in the towel today); and (ii) institutional capital cannot flow into this space until regulations are in place. I know this because I work with institutional capital - custody is still a huge issue.

This week I was on the phone with GPs/operational executives at Pantera Capital, PolyChain and Multicoin capital. All of them are net bullish on this space but know that the short-term is likely going to be painful - it's also interesting to hear that funds are investing in more "protocol " platforms through equity stakes vs. coins offerings.

Those calling for Bitcoin to be at ~100K by end of 2019 should be avoided like a plague. This is devoid of reality. No asset class moves like that, cryptos are no exception. It's also important to keep in mind that it's very early days (think 1994). And hey, I'll be the first to admit when I'm wrong; removing emotions/biases and being objective is the key to successful investing/trading.

The good news for ultra-bulls is that you will indeed get a chance to pick up names cheaper -- we are just nowhere near that point, today's price action should be evidenced of that.

Again, I still think most Alt-Coins are still "massively" overvalued and I suspect +95% of them are headed to $0.

Would love to hear your thoughts below, where you might differ, add value to the discussion through constructive, engaging and respectful dialogue! We are all here to learn and most importantly just make money ;-)

Cheers!

More updates to come.

註釋

Update: Bitcoin is not a buy today. My suggestion is to either: 1) hold on to your coins and let it ride (because no one knows where this is headed and crypto is a gamble); 2) sell here and walk away (move to Gold if you are looking for protection/hedge) or; 3) if you'd like to trade/make money in the near-term -- go net short.

Many of my friends/followers have been asking me to give an update on Bitcoin; I will provide a detailed update when I have enough new things/information/data to share (I've been busy attending insightful conferences, events, talking with industry specialist, etc.). Right now, everything mentioned above covers how I feel today. Nothing has changed.

What's interesting is that as global stock markets selloff, Bitcoin has been flat/lower while Gold has been moving higher. This divergence speaks volumes about where I think we are headed. I expect a major 2-4 year bear market to hit the US stock market in 2019/2020. This may be a catalyst for Bitcoin, but as of now it is not being treated as a stable store of value, medium of exchange, etc. and hacks are still a major setback (finance.yahoo.com/news/newsflash-canadian-bitcoin-exchange-hacked-202509159.html). I also will soon provide data that talks about the environmental impact Bitcoin are having and why this might actually be the nail in Bitcoin's coffin. Again, just objectively looking at the facts.

To be positive on a bull-case (as mentioned above), the price of BTC would have to break $7,500 on strong volume and really $8,500 would be the best entry from a risk/reward perspective. If you buy before you are at risk of those dead-cat-bounces. Let me note that if you really think Bitcoin is going to 50K-100K sometime in the future, it doesn't matter when you buy (3k or 6K, etc.). Just own some. I still think it's worth a gamble -- let me be clear, cryptos are not an investment.

There is no positive news around Bitcoin besides "talks" from the Tim Drapers of the world who are just super bullish because they like the "idea." At this juncture, I see absolutely no reason for BTC to move higher -- except for pump and dumps.

There a way too many "Pro" analysts here who only promote a higher BTC price in the near future....not sure who is actually trading or investing off of these, but so far most people have been burnt listening. Be wary when an analyst gives no analysis, or counter case (just adding fancy trend lines isn't sufficient). It's not objective.

Just to reminder everyone: I have been net bearish on Bitcoin since Dec-17. Since then, I can't tell you how many times I've heard, "this is the bottom." From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is likely to stay flat at this current ~$6,500 level or start the path to 3K as a next support level. Some HUGE positive news would have to come out for BTC to move higher -- like the SEC approving an ETF (though even that's not a good reason to buy).

My best advice for everyone is: do your own homework and make your own decision. None of us have a clue where this cryptos space is headed.

I personally suspect that 95% of alt-coins will go to $0 and Bitcoin will go lower from here. As soon as this narrative changes -- I will absolutely be here letting everyone know that.

I realized I have a lot of new followers and I'm only here to provide my take and perhaps help you decide on positioning/make you some money along the way.

Thank you all for the kind comments below, truly appreciate it. I didn't realize I'd get such positive feedback. It's encouraging me to write more. I want to hear your thoughts -- let's discuss ideas and share information.

Cheers!

註釋

In Aug-18, I wrote:

"Just to reiterate my current view on Bitcoin, right now $5,800 is the level to watch. If it can't hold this level and sustain a run from there (volume will be key to monitor), in all likelihood, Bitcoin will test ~3K."

Here we are as anticipated.

The reason for this decline should be evident for those who have stayed objective. Congrats if you either shorted or stayed away from buying any crypto-assets in 2018.

It's extremely important to note all the "Ideas" on Trading View that have been telling you to buy crypto-assets in 2018 (the ones with the super fancy charts that left out the story, remember those so you can protect yourself). Too many religious ideas here, not enough analysis.

Unfortunately for the bulls, the next leg lower is ~$3,000. This is a key technical level where BTC first started to breakout from in 2017. If this level can't hold, the probability of BTC falling below $1,000 is very high. Seems insane only to those who haven't been paying attention. As of now, there are no fundamental or technical reasons to suggest BTC should go higher (like many predicted over the past couple months). On the contrary, there are so many fundamental and technical reasons to suggest BTC will continue to go lower (like I first predicted in Dec-17).

Remember, no one has any idea where BTC is headed, I'm just sharing with you what the data/research and trend suggests. I will change my tune when the tide changes (never marry any idea).

My advice is to stay away or short BTC/Alts until the SEC/FED provides some meaningful positive commentary/regulations (they are in control). Until then, this space is dead money.

Tomorrow I get to sit down with Galaxy Digital. I'll provide any meaningful takeaway if one emerges.

Stay objective my friends. Remember, we are in 1994. Don't rush in here thinking the worst is over. People are 'still' far too optimistic at this point, blood hasn't spilled (but we are getting there).

Cheers!

註釋

Last night I had the privilege of sitting down with the CIO at Galaxy Digital ("GD"): galaxydigital.io/

Earlier this year they announced partnerships with Bloomberg to launch the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index and they working with Fidelity crypto custody business (ccn.com/billionaire-mike-novogratz-crypto-fund-is-fidelitys-first-custodian-client/).

They are speaking with investors in order to fundraise for their first private credit fund. Essentially, they are providing capital to the underbanked segment of the crypto-space (i.e mining companies/individuals that need financing but banks will not provide capital due to regulatory and associated risk).

Me: "Why is Mike excited about Bitcoin right now?"

CIO (paraphrasing): "Bitcoin is the next generation's gold. We see Bitcoin as a stable store of value, a medium of exchange, etc. However, we don't think it's going to replace the dollar. If you look at places like Venezuela where the currency value and inflation are out of control, crypto-currencies like Bitcoin just makes sense. We see the shift to digital-assets happening all across the world. We also just live in the digital age, look at millennials - everything they do is on their phone/online, etc. Crypto is a natural progression of where the future is headed. We are in the early stages and this ecosystem is just starting to be built out. That's what we are excited about."

Me: "Makes sense, I agree it's early days, but I'm curious as to how Bitcoin is a stable store of value, medium of exchange when everything we've seen so far suggests the exact opposite? Gold has actually been more stable vs. Bitcoin. Also, if you are lending to companies and individuals how many margin calls have you received so far?"

CIO: "Candidly, so far we've had a few recent margin calls, but we underwrite our deals in a way to ensure we have meaningful protection if the price of Bitcoin falls further [zero losses so far]...at the end of the day, we know that the momentum is still there and we want to capitalize on this wave."

Me: "I just wonder how sustainable the model is if you expect Bitcoin to fall, say, another 50% or so from here? Most of the younger generation got burnt buying crypto-assets and are generally uninterested at this point....as the price goes lower, millennials are recognizing that maybe Bitcoin wasn't what they thought it could be; it wasn't a good gamble/investment after all...time will tell of course."

CIO: "I hear you. For us, we are playing the long-term game and just want to find the right opportunities/talk with the right companies."

Me: "I see, for me it was quite simple, my call to short Bitcoin was based on the idea that it's going against the 800-pound gorilla --The Fed/Global Central Banks. Tough to disrupt that overnight."

CIO: "Have you heard of Baakt? This will be a game changer and will make this space more assessable for people and businesses."

Me: "I have, definitely interesting stuff for sure, I envision a world where companies like SBUX, FB, AMZN eventually consider issuing their own coins as well. I just wonder how many coins we will actually need -- saturation might plague the market, which we are seeing with Alt-Coins."

CIO: "that's true, it could happen, but I also think these companies are thinking through these things to ensure that the ecosystem works for everyone."

Me: "Definitely interesting times. Let's set up a time to chat more?"

CIO: "sounds great man, let's keep the convo going, nice chatting."

Overall, I walked away from this meeting feeling the same way. The one thing that was not brought up was the Fed, Wall Street, SEC, etc. The players in charge. Right now I see more challenges than opportunities, and for that reason I see Bitcoin and this entire space going lower (so far it's been the right call).

Never marry an idea. Let Bitcoin prove itself.

More to come.

Cheers!

註釋

~Galaxy Digital conversation above~ galaxydigital.io/

One more thing I wanted to share:

Crypto-chip maker NVDA reported Q3 earnings yesterday -- beating on EPS, but missing on revenue by 60M. During the call, CEO Jen-Hsun Huang mentioned that the crypto-currency speculative bubble bursting is in part responsible for Nvidia's revenue growth declining YoY:

"Yes, well, we came into Q3 with excess channel inventory post the crypto hangover." - Nvidia's earnings call

The company lowered their guidance and with the absence of cryptocurrency mining, which also impacted AMD.

Readers here should not be surprised by this. This space is cooling down a lot, not picking up steam. Just following the data/trends.

Thanks for reading/following along this far - would love to hear your ideas, analysis, thoughts below.

Cheers!

註釋

SEC just released this note: sec.gov/rules/sro/cboebzx/2018/34-84731.pdf

Nothing else to add right now. I'll be providing a more comprehensive update/analysis in Q1-19. Once Bitcoin hits exactly $3,000, I will close this thread and start a new one (suspect that will happen soon).

Happy Holiday!

Action: Sell/Short Bitcoin.

FYI -- the stock market is about to experience a Santa rally; get long.

註釋

One year ago today, I said to short Bitcoin. (twitter.com/khokhar_ahmad/status/1071185712593100800/photo/1).

Many thought I was insane. The price went from ~20K down to ~3.2K.

As a research / technical analyst, it was evident that people created one of the juiciest bubbles Wall Street has ever seen.

Again -- Ultimately, I know that we are moving to a digital currency; however, the jury is still out on cryptos in circulation. We are in 1994 of the crypto-boom. I think it’s smart to own a few coins as a gamble, but it’s not an investment.

Stay objective.

Cheers!

註釋

Just wanted to share this:

"The SEC’s chairman, Mr. Clayton, believes his agency’s repeated warnings about the risks of cryptocurrencies, as well as its enforcement caseload, has tamped down the market’s earlier excesses. “The SEC helped to get rid of the veneer of legitimacy,” he said in an interview."

"Robert Cohen, the SEC’s head of crypto investigations, said the regulator has brought cases that send a strong message to every corner of the market—from token issuers to trading platforms and hedge funds."

outline.com/y5xERp

My short thesis revolves around the lack of regulations/controls in place to prevent price manipulation/fraud still going on in this space. It's not worth buying any cryptocurrencies until we start to get positive comments from the SEC/regulators/governments, etc.

I still think Bitcoin falls below 3K long-term (~$1,700 is the next target/area of support).

As always, I'm looking for signs of a market bottom, but there are no such signs yet. Stay objective my friends.

Cheers!

註釋

Hey folks.

A lot has happened since I've given an update. I am working on a blog post that will be published on Medium (too long for Trading View). I'll keep everyone posted.

For now, just wanted to make a few statements:

1. Recall that I've been net bearish on Bitcoin since 12/7/17 (saved many from buying all the way down from 20K / avoided every dead-cat-bounce since -- blue arrows). In my first post here I said: "...in all likelihood, Bitcoin will test ~3K. I imagine that's the point of extreme pessimism, no one would be willing to step in, retail investors will give up -- that's the moment the Big Boys (institutional investors) will be interested in stepping in."

Well, guess what? Now that we are at the 3K level (which many thought was impossible), we have recent news that the first Pension Fund has entered the crypto space: ccn.com/newsflash-why-this-virginia-police-departments-pension-just-invested-in-a-40-million-crypto-fund

Huge news. Like clockwork/as expected, the Big Boys are now starting to show 'serious signs of interest.' However, there are still many hurdles to get over before they can actually start to 'deploy capital.' More on this later.

2. Recall that I've said that my short thesis "revolves around the lack of regulations/controls in place to prevent price manipulation/fraud still going on in this space. It's not worth buying any cryptocurrencies until we start to get positive comments from the SEC/regulators/governments, etc."

Well, guess what? It's no coincidence that Bitcoin experienced one of its biggest price moves (~10%) in over a year on a day that we get this news: "SEC Commissioner Robert Jackson Jr. is confident that a bitcoin-based fund will be approved by the regulator." The keyword is -- "regulators." Make no mistake about that. Also, keep in mind an ETF doesn't solve many of the inherent issues Bitcoin has, but it does change perception. ccn.com/bitcoin-etf-is-coming-hopeful-us-sec-chief-says-approval-only-a-matter-of-time

So what does this all mean? I do think a shift in sentiment is occurring. However, Bitcoin is not out of the woods just yet.

If you are a long-term believer, none of my analysis matters, just buy it. For the rest of you, my best advice is to let Bitcoin's price action prove itself.

Let's get technical: As I've been saying on Twitter: "To be smart-bullish, wait for BTC to break ~4.4K or you are at risk of a dead-cat." Keep in mind that the 200-day MA is the real test long-term. If it can break through that level, the new uptrend is confirmed. Buying before then is taking on a lot of unnecessary risks. twitter.com/khokhar_ahmad/status/1098381694338387968

For me, it's all about managing risk. I've correctly avoided BTC for over a year now, these recent moves don't get me excited at all (we are literally right back at levels since I posted my last update in Dec-18). I'd much rather buy at higher levels when we have more stability vs trying to perfectly time a bottom and get rekt trying to catch a falling knife (like many bulls have been trying to do for over a year).

Also, keep in mind that RSI/MACD on a daily chart is showing overbought conditions. Last time RSI was at ~71 was back in July-18. Does anyone remember what happened next? Could be nothing, right? Time will tell.

Personally, I still do think Bitcoin has further to fall before a healthy move up can occur, but as I always say, my opinions don't matter, only the facts/data/trend do.

In the end, I am looking for signs of a market bottom, and I am seeing signs of it, but... It's still too early to tell.

Be smart. Be patient. Be objective.

More to come, thumbs up if you enjoy my analysis. Welcome your thoughts/feedback/questions.

Cheers!

tradingview.com/chart/nImdw4p4/

註釋

The chart didn't load:

註釋

I don't typically post on Trading View regarding day-to-day movement, but I do I Twitter. Welcome to follow along: twitter.com/khokhar_ahmad/status/1100871435055128576

Yesterday, I mentioned that it was strange that no one was talking about the H&S that was forming on an hourly basis. Today we saw the follow through. It could be very short-lived but the technicals are breaking down.

This is precisely why I've been saying that you shouldn't be buying Bitcoin until the price action proves that it can break through key levels on the upside -- continue to reiterate that 4.4K is key.

Everyone buying before then isn't managing risk correctly (it's wishful thinking), and I suspect the large majority of people that bought over the past couple weeks/months are underwater (most bought into the recent second wave higher).

Right now, we will likely bounce off the 50-day MA and trend sideways. If Bitcoin cannot hold the 50-day, we will test the Dec-18 lows at minimum.

I still suspect we have not found the bottom of this historic bear-market.

I don't care if I'm right or wrong, I only care about being on the right side of positioning.

Be smart. Be patient. Be objective.

Cheers!

註釋

BTC + LTC both have similar H&S formations. Follow me on twitter for more day-by-day/up to date coverage:

twitter.com/khokhar_ahmad/status/1102744663180496897

註釋

Overnight action invalided H&S for LTC -- price now hitting resistance at $52 (failed 4 times). Wait for confirmation above this level to go long. I'm suspicious of this move, but follow the trend. It's bullish at the moment.

The trend remains the same for Bitcoin, as I've said for months, wait for 4.4K or get caught offsides time and time again.

One thing I want to mention is that these overnight moves that happen in a matter of a few seconds are not healthy because it's not sustainable -- to me it looks like FOMO and or insider buying. I've seen this time and time again where we see large overnight moves, everyone gets super bullish, then a week later we see a massive plunge. Those that jumped in get rekt. Let's be real, this has been the trend since Dec-17. It's why I don't get too excited to see these moves, we saw LTC down ~10% just last weekend. Feels like someone is luring in more prey.

At the end of the day, how I 'feel' is irrelevant. Always follow the trend/data, when it turns bullish, you go long, when it turns bearish, you short or avoid.

Be cautious. Also, think about the long-term utility of the coins surging. Chose wisely.

Cheers!

FYI -- I'll start a new thread soon.

Follow on Twitter for day-to-day commentary/updates. twitter.com/khokhar_ahmad

註釋

Just posted this on Twitter (adding additional commentary below) twitter.com/khokhar_ahmad/status/1113084178227027968

While Bitcoin crashed ~85% in this historic/longest bear market in crypto history, the majority of cryptos bulls (especially on twitter) have maintained bullishness (or have flip-flopped between bullish/bearish many times); many bought during this period thinking the 'bottom was in' and are still sitting on large losses.

Those that have followed me this far know that I've been bearish since 12/7/17 (have not bought once since then). Those that followed/listened have fair far better than those who have been trying to find/time the bottom.

Only on 4/1/19, Bitcoin price action suggests the trend has changed. Not before. Keep in mind that BTC could just have easily have fallen 15% overnight. Those who called the bottom/bought before this surge weren't managing risk (wishful thinking) -- these are the same people who were caught in many of the previous 'dead-cat-bounces.'

I bought some BTC as the ~4.4K level was broken on strong volume - as I've mentioned above, this was the key for me - not trying to time the low, but waiting for price action to prove itself (smart money management from a risk-reward perspective). This is the first time since 12/7/17 that I've bought. So I'm very happy with that and glad to have managed risk this entire time -- patience was and always will be key.

Having said this, the bear market is far from over. We are only back at Nov-18 levels. BTC still needs to recover from the massive plunge from 6K - the next level of strong resistance.

Keep in mind that right now RSI is back at Dec-17 levels.

So, yes things are shifting to bullish (not 100% bullish), but caution is warranted.

Follow me on Twitter for more frequent updates.

Cheers!

註釋

Hey gang,

It's been a long time since I've posted here. The reason why is I moved to Twitter. I don't have much time to make these post, things are moving too fast.

I might come back here at some point and start posting trades, it's been a great couple of years.

If you're interested in following along, i'd suggest following my new Twitter page:

twitter.com/VisionCodeX

Cheers.