BITCOIN | Strong Crossing Area!

2019年11月19日

Hi,

It is hard, it is really hard to find something good and shareable but every time I'll try to come up with an area that may help you or may play a role in the further price action. This time, I'd like to trade it myself. Obviously, there are some certain rejections that I need to wait for because of lack of my "bread-and-butter" criteria but in general, it should offer something - win or lose. :)

To be said, I even started to draw an RSI trendline! This should give you an idea of how difficult this level is because I don't use those lagging indicators almost at all. I HATE those big Daily candles (25. & 26. Oct.), I hate that low volatility after those big candles, I hate this slow death after those Daily candles BUT luckily, here are pretty good long-term criteria that allow you to read the chart properly.

Okay, let's talk about the criteria which make up a crossing area around the $7,700 - $8,000:
1) The fat gray trendline from 2019 high. I said that I hate those massive candles but there is something good about them as well. This trendline worked several times as a resistance line. Multiple failed attempts to push the price above of it, nothing, but after the end of October pump, the price managed to crack the trendline with a strong and powerful candle. It shows perfectly that this trendline is really strong because we needed a hell of a power to make a breakout from it. In general (textbook example), after the breakout, you should wait for a retest to get better entry and currently, the price has started to approach that trendline (which now should act as a strong support level) to make a retest.
2) The yellowish area is historically a strong area. Pulled on the Weekly, several rejections and etc. Recently, it has worked also as a strong support level. It is great that those historically strong basic technical analysis criteria make up a crossing area just below the current price.
3) The black trendline - pulled from 25. April, second touch 23. Oct. It is not the strongest for several reasons - the distances between touches are too asymmetric and etc. - but it is good to have it because it adds a bit strength to the crossing area. In general, good to have it.
4) The round number $8,000. Again and again the 8k. It is almost like the magic number, let's see can it do magic this time?! :)
5) Fibonacci Extensions. Why I have this low volatility after those massive candles are the downwards waves. So difficult to read those tiny bounces and if it is difficult then this decreasing the trade success rate because all become a bit subjective: "I can draw those from here, ahhh...I can draw those from here as well and etc. etc." - basically, it is super easy to make mistakes.
6) Still, I have found some logical AB=CD waves. D points are in the middle of the crossing area.
7) Weekly EMA50 should also add a bit of strength to the current area.


Basically, here are a few opportunities to make a BUY:

Riskiest: Buy immediately after the price has reached to $7,850
A bit less risky: Wait for a 1H candlestick pattern inside the yellow area.
A bit safer: Wait for a 4H candlestick pattern inside the yellow area.
Safest: Wait for a 1H or 4H candle close above the light-blue counter-trendline. Counter-trendlines have offered a lot of pretty amazing trading opportunities (the last one was a sell from 9,200 to 8,600). This time the starting platform (the fat trendline and the yellow support crossing area) is pretty good.


Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only FEE from You!

Best regards,
Vaido

2019年11月19日

註釋

Immediate invalidation candle looks like as an example below:

Immediate BUY pattern on the 4H chart looks like as examples below:
Bullish Railway Tracks:

Morning Star:

Bullish Engulfing:

So, because of the fakeout possibility, I recommend choosing - "A bit safer: Wait for a 4H candlestick pattern inside the yellow area."

2019年11月20日

註釋

It is really great to see the growth of "Selling Ideas":
8) Bet against the crowd! :D

2019年11月22日

註釋

FAILED - Riskiest: Buy immediately after the price has reached to $7,850
Did not occur - A bit less risky: Wait for a 1H candlestick pattern inside the yellow area.
Did not occur - A bit safer: Wait for a 4H candlestick pattern inside the yellow area.
Not even close - Safest: Wait for a 1H or 4H candle close above the light-blue counter-trendline. Counter-trendlines have offered a lot of pretty amazing trading opportunities (the last one was a sell from 9,200 to 8,600). This time the starting platform (the fat trendline and the yellow support crossing area) is pretty good.

Simple conclusion - always be patient ;)