Bitcoin Daily Update (day 276)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.


Previous analysis: “no trade zone for me and suggests that we will range in a Wyckoff manner for another 1-2 weeks until we retest the 33 MA around 4K.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778

Patterns: Bear Channel | Potential symmetrical triangle | Potential 1h bear flag
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,675 | R: $3,750
BTCUSDSHORTS: Close above trendline and now the full candle is > today’s close
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0488%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Full candle below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Flattened after downtrend
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Trending down
Overall trend: Bearish
Volume: Starting to decrease as consolidation continues
FIB’s: Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Full bodied bearish candle
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud shows massive resistance from $3,974 to $4,900
TD’ Sequential: 4h r8 | Daily r5
Visible Range: High volume node from $4,000 - $4,600 holding as resistance. Surprised we haven’t fallen through the gap down to $2,977
Price action: 24h: -3.47%
Bollinger Bands: MA at $4,217
Trendline: Lower highs and higher lows form symmetrical triangle

Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Bearish
Parabolic SAR: Broke the SAR on Coinbase but not on Bitmex. I trust Bitmex due to higher volume / liquidity
RSI: Did form h&s and just confirmed it
Stochastic: Looking very similar to RSI. Will it get a bullish recross?
Last Day Rule: Trigger day for bears is $4,444 and trigger day for bulls is $3,420

Summary: Still expecting consolidation towards the 33 MA, however the next 24 hours are crucial. If we breakdown $3,420 support then that changes everything. Normally setting a sell stop at $3,414 would make a lot of sense.

However there are a number of reasons why I am going to pass on that. Mainly I am not in love with the risk:reward of selling < $3,500 due to the massive support that lies below. Furthermore BTCUSDSHORTS’ are retesting ATHs and a short squeeze is to be expected. Another reason I am not interested is there are much better opportunities shorting alts right now.

ETH:USD is forming a similar triangle at $100 support. If that breaks down then it should fall to $35 - $50 very quickly. ETH:BTC is also threatening to break down major support. If you check my ‘positions’ outlined above then you know I have been shorting ETH:BTC for a while. As I continue to move my stop further into profit I also look for opportunities to add.

Today’s close below 0.0274 provided a great opportunity to increase my exposure.