Trading the Presidential Debate

Investor focus is about to turn to the televised presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. With the race currently so tight, even a small post-debate shift in voter sentiment could impact key markets.

Budget forecasters are grappling with constant changes, and Tuesday's Harris-Trump debate could introduce new ideas.

What we currently know:

Trump’s recent embrace of crypto, including plans to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler and promote U.S. Bitcoin mining, could fuel volatility in digital currencies. Harris, though less vocal on crypto, supports policies fostering tech growth, but her stance remains less defined.

Trump’s plan to slash the corporate tax rate to 15% could boost S&P 500 earnings, while Harris’s proposal to raise it to 28%, a move that may weigh on profits and valuations.

The U.S. dollar could rise under Trump’s policies, with tariffs and increased fiscal spending driving inflation and higher interest rates. However, current estimates show Trump's agenda significantly increasing federal debt which may weigh on its long-term outlook.