BTCUSD: 6K Psychological Support Means Higher Low More Likely.

2018年6月27日

BTCUSD update: Small retrace back into the 6K psychological support. The 6350 area is now a lower high, but if this market was going to sell hard, the bearish candle should have been larger. Instead, price stops at the major support which hints at a higher low.

What I find most interesting is how the negative sentiment is at an extreme (judging by all the bearish talk), while a giant pin bar has printed on a major support level.

What many do not realize is, if this is a short term bottom, it is not going to retrace in a straight line. Bottoming is a process and what price appears to be doing at the moment is retesting the 6K psychological support. If it holds again, a higher low formation will be established.

Keep in mind price has been in a high probability reversal area for days. The process is slow, but once the structure materializes, it often just needs a spark. A news item of some kind that catches everyone off guard, especially the shorts.

Often in a high probability area, order flow expresses itself in ways that indicate some kind of accumulation is taking place. A higher low is one structural example of this process, and is especially relevant in situations like we have on this chart.

In summary, I have been writing about looking beyond the charts in a situation like this. The location and recent structures are all pointing to a greater possibility of reversal but it is not obvious which is why the opportunity still exists.

Price can even retest the 5669 reversal zone boundary and as long as it holds, this market is more likely to reverse than break below this entire support zone at 4983. Of course anything can happen, and an open mind must always be maintained, but at S.C. we bet on probabilities more than anything else. And there are just too many bullish signs in this situation to ignore. Over on S.C. make sure to follow our swing trade updates for this market.