On looking at BTC again, I noticed the distinct possibility of daily RSI divergence if we break below the previous low (3800). Therefore, a major reversal of the downtrend may be coming soon.
What I like about this scenario is the psychological game - most weak hands would want to give up once they see the "capitulation low" from last week get broken. Also, this would get us below the obvious weekly trendline, so even the most die hard BTC holders would probably be questioning their long positions at that point.
Why would MM's allow everyone to buy at the major weekly trendline last week and get away with it? I think it's too simple. The smart thing to do would be to sell it down below the weekly trendline, shake out as many longs as possible, and then pump it back up to around 11k. At that point, BTC bears may switch to long positions (expecting 20k+), only to see BTC fall back down again to the final target of 1800-2k area.
This makes the most sense to me because - it would trick the most people.
Daily divergence is very powerful on BTC so it wouldn't surprise me to see a major reversal after the next low.
Good Luck!
What I like about this scenario is the psychological game - most weak hands would want to give up once they see the "capitulation low" from last week get broken. Also, this would get us below the obvious weekly trendline, so even the most die hard BTC holders would probably be questioning their long positions at that point.
Why would MM's allow everyone to buy at the major weekly trendline last week and get away with it? I think it's too simple. The smart thing to do would be to sell it down below the weekly trendline, shake out as many longs as possible, and then pump it back up to around 11k. At that point, BTC bears may switch to long positions (expecting 20k+), only to see BTC fall back down again to the final target of 1800-2k area.
This makes the most sense to me because - it would trick the most people.
Daily divergence is very powerful on BTC so it wouldn't surprise me to see a major reversal after the next low.
Good Luck!
評論:
Timing for this move up (if it occurs) should be sometime this week
