BTCUSD: Diamond hands? Make more or lose more.
已更新
Some will learn, some won't learn and some need to feel the pain but still won't learn.
Few may recall that recently (linked post below), I said that the sharp switch on the Daily ATR was indicative (not predictive) of a trend switch for the south.
That was transformed into a other lower time frame trend switches. On this chart you see a flattening of the 4H ATR then price collapses. The reasons are not important because this is technical analysis (TA). TA tracks the collective direction of sentiment and has built in many of the underlying fundamental issues.
The 4H time frame is important in about 75% of all trading instruments - which doesn't mean that you just jump in on first sign of a 4H switch (long or short).
In the 4H scenario shown here, I fully expect (not predict) price to return to a 'psychologically magical' $50,000. If it does short-sellers will be looking for a short with a reasonably tight stop loss probably at $56,500-ish. Oh yes, that means a loss, if shorting - for a trend following scenario moving south. And of course, anybody doing proper trend following knows that losses are heavier than any other trading methodology - but that the gains are tremendously more. (Read that brutal disclaimer below)
For those wishing to gamble going long, also expect a rough ride north to around $50,000 if it gets there- with heavy potential losses.
I do not promote gambling. Taking calculated, measured and affordable risk is not gambling.
Whatever you do, watch out for tweets like 'diamond hands', from you know who (and to be clear, it's not from me)! If you don't know about this, what are you doing trading Bitcoin?
Disclaimers: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Few may recall that recently (linked post below), I said that the sharp switch on the Daily ATR was indicative (not predictive) of a trend switch for the south.
That was transformed into a other lower time frame trend switches. On this chart you see a flattening of the 4H ATR then price collapses. The reasons are not important because this is technical analysis (TA). TA tracks the collective direction of sentiment and has built in many of the underlying fundamental issues.
The 4H time frame is important in about 75% of all trading instruments - which doesn't mean that you just jump in on first sign of a 4H switch (long or short).
In the 4H scenario shown here, I fully expect (not predict) price to return to a 'psychologically magical' $50,000. If it does short-sellers will be looking for a short with a reasonably tight stop loss probably at $56,500-ish. Oh yes, that means a loss, if shorting - for a trend following scenario moving south. And of course, anybody doing proper trend following knows that losses are heavier than any other trading methodology - but that the gains are tremendously more. (Read that brutal disclaimer below)
For those wishing to gamble going long, also expect a rough ride north to around $50,000 if it gets there- with heavy potential losses.
I do not promote gambling. Taking calculated, measured and affordable risk is not gambling.
Whatever you do, watch out for tweets like 'diamond hands', from you know who (and to be clear, it's not from me)! If you don't know about this, what are you doing trading Bitcoin?
Disclaimers: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
註釋
For the avoidance of doubt, in all my posts I have never said that Bitcoin can't reach 100,000 or above. I have emphasised a trend-following technique. If price reverses from a 4H time frame and heads north, I'll follow a trend in that direction. Whilst I want BTC to succeed, that doesn't mean I cannot exploit a trend in one or other direction.
註釋
How a 4H trend could have played out. 
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