Bitcoin was expected to push higher during a long, slow but
overall positive day yesterday - it was certainly long and slow
but it didn't push much higher though.
Once it broke below 7480 it was meant to fall to 7401 at
lowest before bouncing away again to the upside.
In the event the subsequent low fell at 7415 before Bitcoin
began to rally again.
Since the low Bitcoin is now back retesting the high of
yesterday at 7599 on Coinbase.
It should meet profit taking from day traders here in the
nearterm and come back to 7550 and move sideways for a
We've had 3 waves up in this counter-rally so far and each one
is smaller though similar to the one before it. This rally as
Europe opened is lame so far and lacking intent or any real
interest. It will need more buyers again from 7550 and off the
lower parallel at worst to stay positive today from here. Even
if it can manage this there is the worry that there's not much
upside potential left in what would be a 4th and final wave
upwards. It needs a big green impulse candle to emerge on a
break above 7600 to change that view.
Yesterday it was Ok to buy the dip - today is less certain.
The only weapon the bulls look to have left in their armoury is
the potential for a sketchy RHS pattern to complete with a
break above 7600 on a spike.
Despite the resistance at 7638-7660 if this RHS is to have a
chance of working out it should rally towards 7660 at first
and then come back to test the neck-line at 7600 again. It
must bounce away to the upside again from this point with
more arriving to help it on its way.
So if we see 7600 broken to the upside it's quite high risk
following long - use a stop 20 to 30 points lower and if this
potential break then lacks coming in right behind it
don't hang about hoping, just close out again and look again
as it comes back to the neck-line. The market is too uncertain
for any gung-ho trades right now and there is resistance
mounting from 7638 and 7662. But the RHS' right shoulder is a
little better defined now after yesterday's price action and it
has 600 points of upside potential if it can complete as above
- so despite risks will be looking to trade it as the downside is
only 20-30 points or so. But it is risky nonetheless.
Returning to the downside initial support lies at 7550 followed
by 7480. Any break below 7480 will force a retest of
7415-7390 range which when broken below will flip Bitcoin
back into bear hands and trigger a short back to 7166 at a
minimum if not to 7068.
Bitcoin Bitstamp Chart Update
Bitcoin Futures Chart Update
A lot of Alts have tested important support levels recently and are now poised for decent rallies - but their future direction is still hanging on Bitcoin. Bitcoin itself is also poised under the neck-line of a potential 600 point break to the upside which may never come...buying any of these Alts therefore depends on Bitcoin breaking and holding the neckline at 7600 on a volume spike (as detailed in comment above).
Busted flush here with DASH almost halving again from the high reached at 548.
Cannot be bought unless and until the lower falling parallel is broken above with stops below - alternatively can wait for a break above 326 to follow long looking for 375 at first then 420.
Positive whilst tracking above the lower small rising parallel - stops for longs need to be kept below here for now
Making a ltttle flag at moment and waiting on Bitcoin
Making a little reverse head and shoulders quite similar to Bitcoin. Has 8 points upside when and if it breaks - which a little more than Bitcoin's likely upside potential, even if the RHS is successful later on today on the daddy.
Still vulnerable under 13. Only worth following once 13 is retaken with stops below
Suffered the same fate as Dash but here it has halved, from 300 to 148.
Has to break above 162 and hold on retest to follow long again from here
Another Alt which has come back to major support and is looking poised for a good break higher if Bitcoin will oblige later.
Right now it's in a little continuation or pennant pattern - again waiting on Bitcoin
Another halving from the high at 94 to 47
BTCUSD Bitcoin Cash
Will follow Bitcoin but gearing higher here
BTGUSD Bitcoin Gold
Well the break below 7480 was good but the next break point at 7480 is not so far. Really don't want it moving up above 7420 if it's to stay good so stops need to be just 1 point above here for now.
But the break is bear engulfing and should result in further weakness later even if it rallies higher in the near term so will not be looking to buy until we get a much better signal . Alternatively drive stop even lower to 7395 for smaller 15 point loss if this does hold up here for a while longer.
Remember that attempted reverse head and shoulders which hadn't formed a decent right shoulder yesterday?
It's trying so hard to make it back to the neckline but has to bust 7450 to do it on futures chart.
If It's going to fail it should be from here.
Any break below the lower end of the nearest support at 7300-7265 range on this chart will trigger another short to 7060 minimum and more likely to 6654-6481 range where it should begin to rally once again.
On the upside here Bitcoin has to break above 7450 to follow long again to the 7624-7735 range with any break above 7735 being a positive signal for the weekend ahead, if we should be so lucky to see it materialise, and signalling further staggered strength to an upside target at 8238.