BTCUSD is a Textbook Wyckoff Reaccumulation Pattern

2018年4月30日

Another week of sideways in BTC turns out to be a much more exciting week of sideways than most - for the chart which has ranged nearly 15% from the local high has been a lot more volatile than it has been for awhile.

Fortunately, the pattern is now really clear and I'm willing to put my butt on the line and say that the next major move up is soon to come.

We have a pretty perfect Wyckoff Reaccumulation pattern, and you can readily place the labels. The extraordinary stop hunt, where in 2 minutes the Bitfinex chart went to 9500 to 8750 and then back to the previous pattern, starts making a lot of sense when you consider that it allowed the operator to test the entirety of the range and reaccumulate every stop, not only to the bottom of the range, but to even hunt very cleverly placed stops which were slightly below the purple line on the chart, which is a resistance that for nearly a month we've only ever wicked 1m candles to.

I've shown a custom script that shows OBV excluding the top 20 percentile candles. This measure is intended to track the background volume by excluding large and usually single minute whale moves in order to see what's going on the rest of the time, and by its nature it works better the smaller the timeframe I use it on as the filter is then better targeted then at single minute volume spikes. Since 15m is the shortest chart TV lets you publish on, you'll just have to take my word for it that this background OBV pattern makes an even more compelling line upwards on the 1m, 3m, and 5m charts, and in fact shows a surge upwards in the consolidation near the SCLX, as expected for reaccumulation. If you were selling at any point this week, well, the operator was happy to buy. The only reason the operator would be happy to buy at 9000 is if the operator expects the price to be much higher than 9000 in the foreseeable future.

We're now reaching the last stages of Phase D with Phase E (markup) soon to come. The triangle the bounds this reaccumulation pattern barely has a day left. If you take a quick look over at ETH instead, its similar pattern reaches the end of its similar triangle within about 12 hours.

I'm an amateur and you definitely shouldn't take anything I say as financial advice. I'm interested in any feedback.

2018年4月30日

註釋

Looks like I was a tad trigger happy in picking the LPS, because now we have a better one with a nice little dump just below the triangle for a terminal shakeout.



Possible that I'm still jumping the gun a bit but this looks convincing so far. Others are noting that if you draw the triangle on the 1H and ignore wicks, we held, so I'm working from a loose assumption that this is the intent. We could could do one more leg down again as far as the purple trendline and nearby pivot at ~9000 and then wick up from there and everything still holds true, so we're not quite out of the woods until we see the clear change in character.

If this analysis is correct, this or a possible leg to the purple line should be the lowest place to buy for awhile.

2018年4月30日

註釋

Adding more detail and a prediction for what comes next. We could just go straight through the triangle top on the change of character, or we could bounce around the triangle for another day.

There are more possibilities including a breakout with a BUEC, but the basic idea is that we go up from here with maybe some periods of sideways.

2018年4月30日

註釋

I think I want to amend this one step further to note that we're now making a large bullflag such that the triangle top may be wrong/irrelevant. This opens the door to a bit more sideways with one more dive to place a final, actual LPS at 9000. Flag targets approximately the 9750 previous top.

...and the great thing about recognizing this as reaccumulation is that we know there's no point in going through this exercise just to stop there and reverse, so we expect to push through into the 10000s.

It was a bit odd that we dumped to a sort of no-man's land between pivots and patterns, but the wick and volume bar is pretty convincing for a final shakeout. Still sort of waiting for a change of character to appear. Once that happens, it's all up.

2018年4月30日

註釋

Not that the clouds *need* to be correct or anything, but we have 1h and 4h Ichi support for a path that climbs now and at most ranges near the top of the triangle.

2018年5月1日

註釋

So it's pretty clear now that I jumped the gun on calling the reaccumulation over. The labels made sense at the time, the cloud support looked nuts, and it did have to stutter a bit to get through it all, but it looks like I was a phase or two early because I didn't consider that I may be looking at the wrong channel.

The pattern is in fact a lot more convincing now with a high volume spring near the bottom of the trading range.

Bad call on my part on a short timeframe swing trade, fine for anyone who trades the daily so long as there are no more surprises before we finish markup.