So far this looks like a good Reverse/Inverse in classic formation with a perfect retest of the neck-line yesterday at 7600 (even more so because no one seems to have really mentioned it - the low today here is 7600 precisely).
It carries with it a minimum implied upside target at 8163 on Bitfinex.
But in the near term Bitcoin has made an 07:30gmt break higher from the 7644 line as it did yesterday too -before spending 24 hours moving sideways again.
The new normal. Sheesh. Every break higher is getting faded now for hours and hours after the intial impulse. £0 minutes of action followed by 24 hours of continuation. Just like fishing on a slow day :(
But this break today is still potentially significant.
We now have a technical battle emerging between the power of the RHS on upside and the power of the upper dynamic of a loosely defined rising wedge-like formation on the downside, both in opposition to each-other, one a positive force and the other negative.
So we can spend quite some time today in yet another continuation pattern with support at 7700 and extending to the lower parallel of the newly forming pattern from the intra-day high.
Both these opposing patterns are powerful. Which pattern will prove stronger ?
Well, so long as the dynamic which forms the lows of the right shoulder holds up on retests today the likelihood is that eventually the break will be higher and not lower.
If so other than buying the dip to 7700 and below to 7768 and maybe to the 7644 line the only other option is to buy the break above the upper small falling dynamic from the intra-day high when and if it comes later on - need a spurt to follow it to know it's good - but the pattern is still overall positive at this point and the uppermost risng dynamic which capped the high today so far, is beginning to lose its power and on the 5th strike it should break too. That will open the way for a RHS to take control and begin to drive price towards the upside target at 8163.
Returning to the downside Bitcoin has to break below the risng dynamic underpinning the lows of the right shoulder of the RHS to start flipping longs out back to 7644 and if this then fails to the neck-line itself again at 7600.
This level must hold up throughout the day from here. Any failure by more than 15 points will flip Bitcoin back into bear hands, signalling ultimate failure of the RHS and trigger a short from this point with stops 50 points or so higher if struck later.
Bitcoin Bitstamp Chart Update
Coinbase Chart Update
Bitmex Chart Update
The short from around the 7683 level back to 7644-7600 range was hardly worth the bother but did create a small win to use as stop for next trade which was triggered by a fall below 7600. But this next short is struggling with price only falling to 7580 so far. The stop on this short can be placed at 7625 highest which if taken also takes most of the meagre profit on the first short, so net break even if it goes wrong from here. Or can choose to close for 12 point or so loss before costs.
Otherwise can wait to short from this point with Bitcoin needing to break 7575 here to follow short again back to 7448. The next support below here lies at 7299.
Right now Bitcoin is resting on the neck-line of the RHS and cannot be shorted aggressively again until 7575 gives way.
On the upside, whilst the neck-line continues to hold there is still a slowly fading chance that Bitcoin can rally away from here. But it's fading with time. Not looking to follow long again until a better signal emerges from here. It has to push back above 7683 line and hold up on the retest to consider switching back to long from this point.
Am taking 48 hours out to attend other business.
Be lucky! Catch you later.
Bitcoin Bitfinex Update
Bitstamp Chart Update
Bitcoin Coinbase Chart Update
Bitcoin Futures Chart Update