Bullissimo的COINBASE:BTCUSD的BTC Daily Chart 27th November 2023

BTC Daily Chart 27th November 2023

Although there was a recent breakout above the horizontal 38K resistance line, was unable to maintain above this level. We can see on the daily and 4h chart that BTC has evolved into an ascending triangle.

Bullish scenario : An ascending triangle is usually a continuation pattern so more upside is possible if BTC manages to perform a (real) breakout above 38K.
In such a case the upper ascending channel trendline will be back in effect creating resistance around 39K and 40K (40K being a psychological resistance and stronger than 39K IMO).

Bearish scenario : If BTC doesn't stay above 37K it will dorp towards the lowest channel trendline which sits at 36-36,5K at the moment. If BTC has a breakdown from the ascending triangle we can see a further drop towards 32K for a retest (yes, I still haven't given up on the retest :-).

On a longer timeframe, as long as we stay above 32K, the bullrun stays valid.

註釋

A more detailed look of the ascending triangle on the 4h chart. Inside of the ascending channel we can see guidelines that mimic the inner and outer trendline that define the channel and will act as support or resistance on a smaller timescale (e.g. 4h and 1h chart).

Notice the 200MA line that is nearing the triangle and now sits at 36K. If BTC breaks down from the triangle the 200MA line will probably act as a (temporary?) support.

Normally an ascending triangle is a bullish pattern. If BTC breaks out of the triangle our next resistance sits at 39,5K (upper channel trendline) and after that 40K.

註釋

Yesterday, BTC made another valiant attempt to break 38K, with several succesfull breaks on the shorter timeframes (1h and 4h) but in the end of the day there was no daily close above 38K. So the rising triangle is still in effect at the moment.

Will BTC maken another attempt at breaking 38K and will we have a daily close above it?

Meanwhile the SEC is going to ask the public what their opinion is about the spot bitcoin ETF. I personally don't see this as a positive thing, the way i see it, they are looking for public justification to refuse the applications. The bitcoin community might be all for a BTC ETF (with lots of pressure on social media) but maybe the SEC are hoping that other people, who have no stake in BTC, might think differently. All in all, the SEC is worried about exchanges being fraude sensitive and who could disagree? FTX, Binance, Kraken they all where in the news recently indicating that BTC might not be mature yet for an ETF approval...

註釋

Yesterday we saw a breakout and daily close above 38K. What i am expecting is a retest of the 38-38,3K zone to see if it now holds as support. If BTC manages to find enough support, we can see a rally towards 40K.
It's possible that BTC will go a little higher towards 39,5K before correcting back towards the retest zone.
I am not expecting that BTC will easily break 40K but with enough momentum it is possible.