BTC/USD: When in Doubt, Zoom out. $12.5k incoming.

已更新

To me it looks like we will be testing $12,400-12,700 in the next 5-6 days. If price fails to break the major downtrend line I see it forming a massive pennant which should bring us down back to the $8-9K area.

Resistance also coincides with previous major uptrend line as well as Major downtrend line.

This isn't investment advice, but chart does look healthy enough on the daily and daily rsi as well.

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Smaller time frame of current action. 2/15/18 3:00PM

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2/17/18 6:00AM

Target Still intact. Following the same uptrend channel.

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2 Possible scenarios forming on the big picture.

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Found another major downtrend line. If you notice a fake breakout upwards happens that then fails. If history repeats that may cause a rush to the mid 12k area before falling again.

If it gets rejected again with a double top I see it forming a massive Head and shoulders by falling back into the $8600-9600 level to make this formation.

Purple line downtrend line.

Extended 4 hour view

15 min close up view. Perfectly rejected $11300

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Channel still following perfectly into target. 2.20.18 (day 5) as I said in my original post 5-6 day target. We have one more day of uptrend before BTC decides which direction it'll take.

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RSI look like it can support that last squeeze out into the target area.

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Go ahead and click the Play button on the original post :) Not only heading to the bulls eye target but date / time also falling in perfectly.

Extended view

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Failed to hold above the purple downtrend line. Corrected down some. Now lets play close attention to this area.

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Now re-testing the breakout. Lets see if it holds.

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Retrace and retest of the downtrend breakout. Perfectly retraced the price of the base formation of the rising wedge.

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Are the 2 scenarios posted on Feb. 19 forming? If so, which one will it be.

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2.26.18
Me personally I feel like we may re-set 6 hour RSI back to 30 before the break-out.
Which may occur ~ March 8-10.
Charting the 6 hour RSI from the down-fall of early December to the breakout of a Key resistance line on Feb-7 on both the RSI and chart.
A re-test of the breakout happened on Feb-25th ~ $9330 on the RSI. Although resistance sits at 45 it is possible to go up from here if broken through, if not I still see a good 10-15 days of downtrend scalps remaining.
Also the bounce off a major trend line coinciding with the breakout of a major trend line on the chart hasn't been re-tested. Will it happen? Only time will tell. But for now I'll keep most of my position in Fiat until I see a good + movement on this level.

Keep in mind that we are on a critical level deciding the direction of BTC. So there can be a fake-out or just simply go vertical from here.

6 Hour RSI.

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BTC Bear flag target?

dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/trend_of_the_day/2012/08/15/How_to_Trade_a_Bearish_Flag_Pattern.html

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6 hour update.
Falling wedge target reached. My sell orders luckily filled @ 11020 :)

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Bearflag Target/s

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Another very possible scenario.
8 Hour chart. The price of the rising wedge breakdown target = fall of he base price of the formation of the rising wedge.

Falling wedge breakout formation target = highside of the formation of the falling wedge. Which puts the price target around $11650-11700 which also targets the major downtrend line and 8 hour SMA200

Zoomed in view.

Zoomed out view.

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Congrats to those who bought the bear flag target. Price went under on the buy zone by $1.30 cents. So if you placed your order at 10216 you could say you bought the wick of the dip :)

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Keep your $ on-sight. Reaching a very critical moment here.
I noticed a rising wedge formation, if bulls manage to break upwards tha'll ignite bears to jump on the boat to mid to high area.

If it falls down it should retrace the base price formation of the wedge.
I shorted a 1/3rd of my position at $11472 on Gdax. I'll rebuy that poistion if we break out upwards. I'll short another 1/3 if we breakdown the wedge and scalp trade to the bottom.

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Let's see if it can stay inside the wedge.

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Rising wedge failed, retested and broke down from $11600 just as I expected.

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If $10450 It may cause a quick sell off to ~$10120

Big Picture 8 Hour

8 Hour RSI. Looks like we may have a chance to go back up short term for a scalp opportunity.

Close up action 30 min view.

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Nothing but bearflag formations on it's way down. Be careful trading these as when they break down they can take 10% from you quickly.

Close 15 min view

Extended view. Original target from chart still active. Just click the play button :)

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Bounced off it's Linear downtrend line, which is now acting as support. I see a short opportunity to $9260-9500.

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I see another rising wedge. But also looking bullish to make a next stop at $10092.
First one broke down and retraced exactly $900 which was the base formation of the wedge.
30 min.

Only to form another larger wedge. If we break out to the downside and don't find support around $8650-8800 we may come all the way down to $7600-7800 to retest the major uptrend line again.

1hr

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Yep

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Bunch of What if scenarios. Until we break out of the major downtrend.

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Head and shoulders target.

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Previous H&S target completed a formation of a larger H&S target. If the blue trend line cannot hold (2 green bounce line zones) and the H&S plays out it can have 2 big possible retracements.

8 hour view

Close up 2 hour view of current action.

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Day trade scalp channel for those risk traders.

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Day Traders channel updated. Watch for break-down. Or breakout of the mid downtrend.

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Click the play button :)

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Careful in these zones. Resistances lies at 9140-9170 if we plow through it we will test 9350-9400 where daily resistance will try to hammer us back down.
If $9350-9400 is taken down that'll be a for sure ticket to retest main downtrend log line which should be within reach of $9970-$10084.

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We need to stay inside the rising wedge to reach our 9350-9400 target.
If the rising wedge breaks to the downside we should retrace the base formation of the wedge where we will find support ~8620. This should spring us to our 10k target.

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Rising wedge breakdown just as expected. I'll be buying back at 8380-8500.

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Rising wedge broke down just as expected. I'm expecting a divergence in the hourly RSI to build up. First target will be
$8590-8635 buy in for a short term trade sell at $8795 for the risk traders.
If that plays out and $8795 cant be broken then the next target will be $8360-8430. Where I expect a true bounce, it also fits with the retracement price off the base of the wedge.

Stop loss $8225.

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Price bounced right at $8630 within our scalp zone and pumped to $8760.

I wont scalp from here on down til It hits my buy orders on my buy zone below.

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Bears managed to print a bearflag. Target zone still in play.

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First Target hit. Possible scenario if it can't take out 8500+

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First target zone filled in perfectly and take profit zone reached. Now lets see if this pattern prints as I'm expecting it to.

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Perrrfect bounce. Now we just need to trade above $8750 to continue upwards continuation.

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Forming a Pennant, if we break out upwards we first have one target to beat.
~$8820. That is supported by the flag pole size of the breakout from the falling wedge.

If $8820 is taken out our target will be the size formation of the base of the falling wedge which takes us to $9000 from the wedge breakout. Also supported from the beginning of the flag pole size.

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Breakout.

First target zone if we come out of the downtrend channel.

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Target hit peeeeerfectly. For those who followed we accumulated right at the bottom and sold on the wick of the candle ontop.

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Perrrrfect scalp again, price went $5.75 under target buy zone. For now we will be trading withing this channel. Will update on a new pattern print or break of either side.

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That was fast.

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Posted this on my weekly setup chart.

Now... Bear Flag target hit perfect. Went $5 under my bounce target.

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Next Target. If this fails to reverse we will be visiting the $73-7400's. I personally see 7400 zone as a very possible reversal zone.

Close up view.

Zoomed out.

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Target hit perfectly again. Now building a flag, lets watch the breakout direction closely.

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Broke first downtrend. Next target labeled.
+ Possible scenarios

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Flirting with major trend line. Loosing this on the daily will cause a panic sell off

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Bigger picture.

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Just as I posted on my update on March 26, I personally see the 7400's a reversal zone, although there seems to be a lot of sell pressure and bounces are no where near as strong as they once used to be. If this area fails to hold I will update with a new trading channel that will be unlocked that I've been getting subliminal hints from trends.