BTC bear fractal pattern

2018年4月18日

I'm seeing this fractal pattern on both the regular and log time scale (log timescale is portrayed here as it better reflects long periods of time).
Not sure where we are in the fourth fractal (green one) as the RSI seems to suggest that the "double top" has already happened. I believe that since the fractals are getting smaller and smaller we will soon see the price break either the red bear trend line or the teal support line. TA would suggest a continuation of the bearish trend but I see a lot of optimism in the market with many calling this the bottom.
I still remain skeptical and am preparing for the price to go lower (which is not what I want) to maybe around 4800 USD where it would find enough steam to start a new bull run.

2018年4月18日

交易進行

Maybe 4 hour chart is better to see the fractals

2018年4月19日

交易進行

It looks like that 4th fractal (green) is still unfolding. Hopefully price action will contradict me and break out toward 8.7k-9k.

Also just because someone is at times annoying and may seem a perma-bear doesn’t mean he can’t be right:

2018年4月19日

註釋

(Click on the second diagram to see the full story in a new window)

2018年4月19日

註釋

And the Elliott Wave interpretation which is consistent with the same bear trend fractals as above. The interesting part is that we're about to have a golden cross on the 4 hour chart therefore we have bullish signals in a bearish context.

2018年4月20日

註釋

Here's something interesting, I looked at the 2014 BTC crash and I think I see the same patter unfolding. Of course nothing happens the exact same way but it's something to keep in mind when you are asking yourself if this was the bottom and wether you should buy now before the price starts hitting new ATH:

2014:



Now:



While I do intend to profit from this new sort-off "Alt season" I try to keep in mind the big picture and not get to greedy. Also I am thinking of accumulating Fiat rather than accumulating BTC, which is to say when I take profits from alts, I want to keep it in BTC (to reinvest or hold) rather than keeping it in Fiat (I want to maximise my Fiat capital and buy low rather than BTC).

Hope that makes sense.

2018年4月20日

註釋

Forgot to point out above that the 50 EMA cross of the 200 EMA (and soon to be recross) is also something that I noticed happened at the same time as price breaking downtrend resistance (red line).

So we could see a run up...followed by a new bear channel.