Crypto & Macro analysis
已更新
Hello everyone! On this analysis I will make a brief summary of my previous analysis for traditional markets and crypto, but this time around I will focus mostly on crypto. I'd also recommend people to read my previous ideas and my recent threads on my twitter profile (@StakeSats) to get an idea of what I've been thinking and been playing with, as I don't want to be very repetitive for people that follow me + I've added several updates.
So far the USD keeps getting weaker even during times where stocks are correcting. To me it is very clear that there are very few fiat currencies that are bearish vs the USD, and that is the EUR, TRY & RUB. The rest and especially EM are pretty bullish against it. ZAR and MXN keep getting stronger, AUD holds pretty well and GBP has had a strong bounce off key support. My thesis that EM currencies are a better bet for now than equities has been playing out and I expect it to keep being that way, as I believe equities could fall another 5-10%. Of course that is specifically for US equities as the rest of the world is fine and I don't believe that stocks are that expensive. In my view the real move on the Nasdaq has just started and this is just a correction. Now the only real problems are that the Yen is getting stronger (USDJPY is extremely bearish) and that the Euro seems to be forming a top here. It remains to be seen if this is only Euro being bearish and not the Dollar being bullish, because that is a key difference. Of course if the EURUSD pair goes to 1.14-1.15 that I think is quite likely, then we could see a further correction in equities and even crypto. Finally the one that has me on edge is the USDCNH pair that is at key support and quite oversold, which along with EURUSD and USDJPY weakness could be the real signals that a correction is coming.
And it's crypto time! As you probably already know altcoins have been in correction over the last few weeks, but several had started going down even earlier than that. Many had explosive moves up and seem to be in a bad shape, while others are looking much better. So what is the best way to play this? Where does someone focus? What are the key things to watch? What is Bitcoin's position in all of this?
Well first of all people need to remember that alts are highly inflationary as an asset class (many have high inflation, but also their numbers keep increasing as new coins always come out) and that they are essentially like Bitcoin shorts. What I mean is that when Bitcoin moves a lot, they tend to get squeezed as liquidity flows back to Bitcoin which is much larger and liquid, something that makes pull back especially if they had already gone up substantially. Of course not all alts are the same and not all alts pullback, so how does someone pick the ones? When is it a good time to do so? Essentially the key is to find the ones that have either pulled back a lot and are near key support or ones that still have a clean trend and aren't following the rest to the downside. Another thing is to find charts that are special (not looking like most other coins) and even better if the is a fundamental catalyst.
For example NEO is going up nicely with the 3.0 as a catalyst. THETA might have a catalyst that I am unaware off, but the chart is really clean and reminds a bit of REN before it broke out. VET has been bouncing of key support after having topped much earlier than others, plus more examples you can see below. Now one example I've been mentioning a lot is BAND, which is retesting its previous high. Now it is down 60% so there is a potential for a bounce here, but I don't expect it to have follow through. It is key to distinguish between a quick bounce and something that could have legs (momentum). In my view it is better to chase momentum and play bounces that try to hold something that is going down because it is cheap. I'd go as far as saying that this is bad trading and should be discouraged. Finally in terms of what to look an important this is to know where Bitcoin is and what it is doing. When Bitcoin is near resistance like it is now (11.1-11.5k) it is a good time to play alts. Can't remember when or where I mentioned it recently, but this is exactly what happened over the last few days although not all alts pumped, yet they look better or there was more green (again remember, alts are like Bitcoin shorts especially when you look at ALTBTC pairs).
So what do I think? What do I like? THETA, NEO, LRC and QNT are probably my favourite ones although I am still scanning for a few coins. Maybe coupling that with a few shorts (although alts are down a lot) against XTZ, ADA & HBAR. BTC is near the resistance zone and although it looks bullish and the data around it are bullish, I think it could pull down to 10.5k and generally stay within 10.5-11.5k for a few days/weeks. The probability of going down to 9.2-9.8k is still high and 7-8k are still probably but less likely. Until I see 10.5k break, I am not interested in long term shorts or playing anything other than BTC in range bound conditions. Of course that would give some alts breathing room, although I wouldn't say that they are back. After 3.5 months of alt season, I believe alts need some extra time to cool down and potentially until BTC breaks 20k. In my opinion we will be above 15k by the end of the year and potential hit 20k. In that period many alts will have their moments, many will go into accumulation mode vs USD or BTC, but for now I am cautious.
The last thing I want to talk about is ETH, as it has been quite strong and refuses to drop below support. It actually looks like it could break higher, but for now it still hasn't closed above 0.0362 & 390 which are my levels. Due to the current situation with Uniswap, maybe ETH had more of a temporary pump and nothing more. However I am aware that this token launch could be a major catalyst for reviving a few alts and giving ETH a boost, especially when ETH has so many things going for it (lots of liquidity, lots of tokens and ETH 2.0 coming). My view had been that ETH will hit 0.05-0.054 before alt season was over, but things got a bit out of hand before that happened. Now ETH has to major targets (0.0265 & 0.05-0.054) and I think that over the next year both will be hit, even though I am still indecisive as to which will be hit first. It is going to be ETH having a mega run and squeezing alts, before BTC goes on its mega run? Do both go up together and everything else struggles? By the end of the month we should have a much clearer picture.
Thanks a lot for reading
So far the USD keeps getting weaker even during times where stocks are correcting. To me it is very clear that there are very few fiat currencies that are bearish vs the USD, and that is the EUR, TRY & RUB. The rest and especially EM are pretty bullish against it. ZAR and MXN keep getting stronger, AUD holds pretty well and GBP has had a strong bounce off key support. My thesis that EM currencies are a better bet for now than equities has been playing out and I expect it to keep being that way, as I believe equities could fall another 5-10%. Of course that is specifically for US equities as the rest of the world is fine and I don't believe that stocks are that expensive. In my view the real move on the Nasdaq has just started and this is just a correction. Now the only real problems are that the Yen is getting stronger (USDJPY is extremely bearish) and that the Euro seems to be forming a top here. It remains to be seen if this is only Euro being bearish and not the Dollar being bullish, because that is a key difference. Of course if the EURUSD pair goes to 1.14-1.15 that I think is quite likely, then we could see a further correction in equities and even crypto. Finally the one that has me on edge is the USDCNH pair that is at key support and quite oversold, which along with EURUSD and USDJPY weakness could be the real signals that a correction is coming.
And it's crypto time! As you probably already know altcoins have been in correction over the last few weeks, but several had started going down even earlier than that. Many had explosive moves up and seem to be in a bad shape, while others are looking much better. So what is the best way to play this? Where does someone focus? What are the key things to watch? What is Bitcoin's position in all of this?
Well first of all people need to remember that alts are highly inflationary as an asset class (many have high inflation, but also their numbers keep increasing as new coins always come out) and that they are essentially like Bitcoin shorts. What I mean is that when Bitcoin moves a lot, they tend to get squeezed as liquidity flows back to Bitcoin which is much larger and liquid, something that makes pull back especially if they had already gone up substantially. Of course not all alts are the same and not all alts pullback, so how does someone pick the ones? When is it a good time to do so? Essentially the key is to find the ones that have either pulled back a lot and are near key support or ones that still have a clean trend and aren't following the rest to the downside. Another thing is to find charts that are special (not looking like most other coins) and even better if the is a fundamental catalyst.
For example NEO is going up nicely with the 3.0 as a catalyst. THETA might have a catalyst that I am unaware off, but the chart is really clean and reminds a bit of REN before it broke out. VET has been bouncing of key support after having topped much earlier than others, plus more examples you can see below. Now one example I've been mentioning a lot is BAND, which is retesting its previous high. Now it is down 60% so there is a potential for a bounce here, but I don't expect it to have follow through. It is key to distinguish between a quick bounce and something that could have legs (momentum). In my view it is better to chase momentum and play bounces that try to hold something that is going down because it is cheap. I'd go as far as saying that this is bad trading and should be discouraged. Finally in terms of what to look an important this is to know where Bitcoin is and what it is doing. When Bitcoin is near resistance like it is now (11.1-11.5k) it is a good time to play alts. Can't remember when or where I mentioned it recently, but this is exactly what happened over the last few days although not all alts pumped, yet they look better or there was more green (again remember, alts are like Bitcoin shorts especially when you look at ALTBTC pairs).
So what do I think? What do I like? THETA, NEO, LRC and QNT are probably my favourite ones although I am still scanning for a few coins. Maybe coupling that with a few shorts (although alts are down a lot) against XTZ, ADA & HBAR. BTC is near the resistance zone and although it looks bullish and the data around it are bullish, I think it could pull down to 10.5k and generally stay within 10.5-11.5k for a few days/weeks. The probability of going down to 9.2-9.8k is still high and 7-8k are still probably but less likely. Until I see 10.5k break, I am not interested in long term shorts or playing anything other than BTC in range bound conditions. Of course that would give some alts breathing room, although I wouldn't say that they are back. After 3.5 months of alt season, I believe alts need some extra time to cool down and potentially until BTC breaks 20k. In my opinion we will be above 15k by the end of the year and potential hit 20k. In that period many alts will have their moments, many will go into accumulation mode vs USD or BTC, but for now I am cautious.
The last thing I want to talk about is ETH, as it has been quite strong and refuses to drop below support. It actually looks like it could break higher, but for now it still hasn't closed above 0.0362 & 390 which are my levels. Due to the current situation with Uniswap, maybe ETH had more of a temporary pump and nothing more. However I am aware that this token launch could be a major catalyst for reviving a few alts and giving ETH a boost, especially when ETH has so many things going for it (lots of liquidity, lots of tokens and ETH 2.0 coming). My view had been that ETH will hit 0.05-0.054 before alt season was over, but things got a bit out of hand before that happened. Now ETH has to major targets (0.0265 & 0.05-0.054) and I think that over the next year both will be hit, even though I am still indecisive as to which will be hit first. It is going to be ETH having a mega run and squeezing alts, before BTC goes on its mega run? Do both go up together and everything else struggles? By the end of the month we should have a much clearer picture.
Thanks a lot for reading
註釋
NDX hit 10750 and now retested a key breakdown zone before the close. Imho the way things look right now, maybe a bounce at 10400-10600 and then 9950-10200.SPX filled the triple/double gap I had mentioned in my previous analysis and swept all lows, but also retesting broken support. SPX could get down to 3150-3180 in my view, although currently it has reclaimed the lows and is trying to push higher
USDZAR retesting the breakdown zone. Maybe it gets higher to retest a zone it hadn't retested to shake out the shorts. My view that EM will outperform still holds, but could take a break and pullback as the USD is going higher vs other currencies.
BTCUSD is still stuck between support and resistance, however altcoins are taking multiple hits left and right. For now I am quite neutral on BTC as there are many arguments to be made, but I have no clear edge. For example Long/Short ratios have gone down, but overall are still elevated. Basis/funding have gone negative, yet premiums are quite elevated. Doji on the daily on a TD right at resistance, but the bounce of 9.8k was pretty good and it is clear the price has broken out. Most on chain and fundamental metrics are quite bullish, but the unfilled gaps and untested areas lower could matter more temporarily. Because if the altcoin & stock collapse accelerates, plus a potential USD bounce might end up affecting Bitcoin too and finally get it to test 7-8k within the next 30 days.
Alts didn't give any good opportunities and most keep on dumping non stop. Like I said above, there are very few I'd want to touch... and even those might not be worth it until the bubble fully pops and the cycle. I've been talking about selling/shorting alts for quite some time, but be careful where and how you short. Many will have strong bounces that could wipe you out, so wait for the bounce/retest before you short.
註釋
When looking at the CME chart I think we get a clearer picture. If this happens, with all the stablecoins, altcoin bubble deflating and the S2F model showing at 20-30k price by the end of the year... I think that the correction would be the shakeout we need before moon
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