Slump & Dump continues, consolidation 3-4k for a year THEN bulls

With the global pandemic slaughtering markets for the next while, nobody has any stomach for volatile speculative assets (like crypto), so I expect the dumping to continue, and any rallies to run out of steam without fresh speculative interest. We'll touch the fabled "2K COINS" range in a panic spike at the bottom of this pink wedge, then market should range between 3-4k for a season. It will take some settling of global markets before the next bull run in crypto kicks off. Based on an obviously simplistic cloning of the bars from the last bubble bear market, we would finally finally see the bulls starting around next June 2021 (where sideways ranging runs into the rising wedge bottom line again). That sounds about right in line with what's being projected for the long-term effects of COVID-19 possibly having a second wave into the fall/winter of 2020. The world won't be on lockdown that long, of course - but the economic consequences of all this disruption will take easily a year to shake out.

評論:

looooooooong curve extrapolation of next bubble cycle