[updated] BTC/USD projected bottom based on EW count (18+)

2018年3月12日

Seems like the recent push towards 9900 was just a final leg up of the IV wave which is now over and we are in the V final wave of this correction. We may still see 7500-7600 levels and we should see a bounce from there up until at least 12.500 area.

You need a lot of data to confirm the bottom (7500) but if the drop is extremely sharp and the lowest point is touched for a minute before the massive buy orders start coming in giving an increase in volume and closing the gap completely we can be pretty certain the trend is switching for good (good example is the way we bottomed in February). That is why the recent jump IMO wasn't the trend changer, and we need deeper pullback followed by aggressive purchasing. Then we will enter major wave 3 towards new highs and it should be by definition be more aggressive than the first wave we had since Feb bottom.

I wouldn't short here personally as you never really know how quickly this can turn, but I am ready with buy orders near the projected 7500 area (25% of portfolio - 50% was filled in during the last dip).

2018年3月13日

註釋

Quick look at the chart confirms our expectations so far, we had a nice bounce off 8800 and a continuation of a down trend at ~9400.

As I write this update price is around 8900, and given that there's a big sell off while US market is opened and that it usually takes the price down for about 1000$ we expect to see 7800 level again pretty soon.

Bearish momentum is still here, however buyers are eager to get back in and their patience may run out soon so expect an aggressive buying pattern when we hit the bottom (7500-7600 levels), only that will confirm this was a bottom and that we are ready to go higher for some time. I expect next slow down of the upcoming bullish trend to be at around 12.500 but let's wait and see how this unfolds.

2018年3月15日

註釋

Recent push down towards 7800 was followed by a push up to 8200 fairly quickly indicating that buyers are truly eager to get back in and ride the upward wave that's incoming.

I bought the dip for 25% of portfolio and won't be increasing my position until we see the major bullish wave III confirmed (say breach of 10.000 level).

On hourly time frame, I expect another push down toward 7550 right after reaching 8400-ish level which should mark the end of this correction and a beginning of an upswing which should bring us above recent highs.

*also someone asked why are my chart lines not aligned on the time axis - it is because I wanted to show you precise price levels which are turning points and not try to guess the time when they will be hit as it is less relevant than the price itself. So far all the waves are matching my price turning points spot on.

Take care, keep those stop losses loose and seize the day!

2018年3月17日

註釋

Recent push to 8500 was marked as the beginning of the uptrend by many analysts here today. However, since we were in a strong downtrend we need to see aggressive purchasing at a turning point, weather at 7500, 7600 or even 7350, only if the dip gets filled in quickly will we have confidence we are in a major uptrend again.

Another thing according to EW theory is that each a-b-c wave is followed by five waves in the opposite direction, therefore since 4th wave (IV) of this correction clearly had a-b-c structure, the final fifth wave (V) had to have five waves within itself. That is why I think we are going to go below 8000 now before we enter a new major bullish wave towards 12.500 levels.

More updates to follow. Stay tuned.

2018年3月17日

註釋

All is going according to the projected movements, I would just like to add that we may see 7200-7300 levels before the strong bounce. Wave even has a strength to reach 7000, but it would seriously breach a bottom line of this trend, however sometimes it does need to pierce through the channel in order to provoke strong buying or selling.

I am already in long positions for the 75% of the portfolio but I have added some minor purchase orders near the bottom, especially on LTC which is projected to bottom at 140 (now that I write that, I realise that the 7000$ BTC may be plausible as LTC/BTC relationship would approve 50:1 ratio).

Remember that for this fall to stop for good we need to see instant and impulsive purchase orders once the critical price is reached.

Medium term, we should enter the third wave, towards at least 12.500 but more on that once we have more data.

Enjoy the weekend, don't stress it, and remember: if you are stressing over it - your position is too large.

2018年3月18日

註釋

Thanks for anyone who followed and messaged me. This trade idea was 100% spot on, and it was possible to earn 2500$ per 1BTC traded longing and shorting on price turning points I indicated.

In the future, I do think we need to go up, way up (12.500 by May 1st and then 18.000 - sounds crazy right now, I know), BUT I don't see any evidence in price movements that would say we went bullish today so we still need to be on a lookout for the trend switch confirmation.

Interestingly, number of both longs and shorts were at ATH last night and are still pretty high with about 35,7K of longs and 24,7K of shorts.

I don't recommend buy yet, but I do think we are exhausting this down trend.

2018年3月18日

註釋

Looking at the chart, it is evident that we are now in a third, impulse wave and we are heading above recent highs, which means crossing 12.000 levels for BTC and 255 for LTC. This jump will come in waves of course, which I will try to outline more precisely once the picture gets clearer to try to maximise profits so feel free to subscribe as I'll share my trading plan with you.

I went long again during the final dip for the remaining of my portfolio. Third waves are usually the most profitable ones and as I write this there are more and more evidences that we are definitely in it right now so good luck trading and stay tuned for more!