BTC Cycles & Forecast
Hello TradingView, I'd likely to briefly discuss "market cycles" and share my current opinion/forecast for BTC using the weekly chart.
To preface, most of my work now and moving forward is are based on the works of Gann and Jenkins. If you know anything about these two individuals in the trading world, then you'd know that they base their analysis on mathematics and the effects of astrological events on human behavior. To put it short, a lot of their technical analysis in the form of geometry, angles, and shapes were essentially "abstractions" that represented these more grand calculations and conclusions relating to time and price. I'll tie more of this in later...
Now, what is a market cycle? The short and easy answer would be the period in which a market goes from an extreme low, to an extreme high and vice versa. We hear a lot on YouTube and elsewhere about 4 year cycles for BTC, but this concept is rather naïve and vague. Markets don't just simply pump for 2 years, and then decline for 2 years and repeat year after year. Why is this? Because of the equilibrium of price and time.
"As much as things go up, they must go either down or sideways."
Price can go up and down, but time cannot. We can only move in one direction with time. As such, the cycles and frequencies of the market occur at uneven but natural increments.
These lines on the above were constructed right after the initial high of April 2021 from an important low in March 2020. The drawings are not purely historical. Had I been on TradingView a couple years ago this chart would look the same using the same calculations and angles using the same price movement at that time.
I'd like to highlight the vertical lines on the above chart and note how they have forecasted some of the major turns in the market with relative accuracy. Think of these as key points or mini-cycles, and the formed using the price retracement levels and CONVERTING THEM into TIME RETRACEMENTS. They (mostly) aren't of equal length apart and are based on the length of time and momentum of the initial impulse wave. Now realize all bull and bear market DURATIONS are due to the difference in time length between vertical lines and that is VARIABLE AND DEPENDENT ON THE INITIAL IMPULSE WAVE.
You can see the relationship between the horizontal support and resistance lines, as well as the diagonal lines. Notice how candle closes/opens respected these. It is when price is at support and resistance as well as a vertical line when some of the best opportunities present themselves.
So market cycles are in fact, not even lengths of time as we so commonly make out to be. We are approximating and simplifying our estimations within Earth years because it is the easiest for most humans to understand. To tie into the preface, it is when you not only consider Earth years (rotations around the sun), but also the years of other planets that things get even more interesting.
Ever heard of the 84 year cycle? (A fourth turning.)It is mostly commonly associated as a war cycle. This also happens to naturally be the the amount of time it takes for Uranus to complete one trip around the Sun. Curious, huh?
When BTC broke the major (thick) angle is when we officially entered the bear market. This angle represents HALF the momentum of the initial impulse. As Gann had stressed, the 50% retracement is the most important. BTC has since consolidated after the plunge, and within the last month we're beginning to see a bear market rally to continue on the cycle. After the FOMC pump, we are sitting right at a major resistance area of ~23950, and I do expect another go for 30k - 34k this year. We have another potential pivot within the first week of July this year so stay tuned. My current opinion is that the real bottom is not in yet.
BTCUSD
To preface, most of my work now and moving forward is are based on the works of Gann and Jenkins. If you know anything about these two individuals in the trading world, then you'd know that they base their analysis on mathematics and the effects of astrological events on human behavior. To put it short, a lot of their technical analysis in the form of geometry, angles, and shapes were essentially "abstractions" that represented these more grand calculations and conclusions relating to time and price. I'll tie more of this in later...
Now, what is a market cycle? The short and easy answer would be the period in which a market goes from an extreme low, to an extreme high and vice versa. We hear a lot on YouTube and elsewhere about 4 year cycles for BTC, but this concept is rather naïve and vague. Markets don't just simply pump for 2 years, and then decline for 2 years and repeat year after year. Why is this? Because of the equilibrium of price and time.
"As much as things go up, they must go either down or sideways."
Price can go up and down, but time cannot. We can only move in one direction with time. As such, the cycles and frequencies of the market occur at uneven but natural increments.
These lines on the above were constructed right after the initial high of April 2021 from an important low in March 2020. The drawings are not purely historical. Had I been on TradingView a couple years ago this chart would look the same using the same calculations and angles using the same price movement at that time.
I'd like to highlight the vertical lines on the above chart and note how they have forecasted some of the major turns in the market with relative accuracy. Think of these as key points or mini-cycles, and the formed using the price retracement levels and CONVERTING THEM into TIME RETRACEMENTS. They (mostly) aren't of equal length apart and are based on the length of time and momentum of the initial impulse wave. Now realize all bull and bear market DURATIONS are due to the difference in time length between vertical lines and that is VARIABLE AND DEPENDENT ON THE INITIAL IMPULSE WAVE.
You can see the relationship between the horizontal support and resistance lines, as well as the diagonal lines. Notice how candle closes/opens respected these. It is when price is at support and resistance as well as a vertical line when some of the best opportunities present themselves.
So market cycles are in fact, not even lengths of time as we so commonly make out to be. We are approximating and simplifying our estimations within Earth years because it is the easiest for most humans to understand. To tie into the preface, it is when you not only consider Earth years (rotations around the sun), but also the years of other planets that things get even more interesting.
Ever heard of the 84 year cycle? (A fourth turning.)It is mostly commonly associated as a war cycle. This also happens to naturally be the the amount of time it takes for Uranus to complete one trip around the Sun. Curious, huh?
When BTC broke the major (thick) angle is when we officially entered the bear market. This angle represents HALF the momentum of the initial impulse. As Gann had stressed, the 50% retracement is the most important. BTC has since consolidated after the plunge, and within the last month we're beginning to see a bear market rally to continue on the cycle. After the FOMC pump, we are sitting right at a major resistance area of ~23950, and I do expect another go for 30k - 34k this year. We have another potential pivot within the first week of July this year so stay tuned. My current opinion is that the real bottom is not in yet.
BTCUSD
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