BITCOIN Q1 2019.
已更新
Hello – This is what im seeing with BTC at present.
Bitcoin continues to consolidate;
Bounces off prior support yielded a c.61.8 recovery through consolidation, being capped by what is now solid declining resistance >1 year.
The consol. Occurring at 3k is showing similar behaviour to that at 6k, the corrective period so far in 2019 is the least severe in this bear market which is fairly encouraging, but low 3k need to be tested. A bounce from here would see a reasonable target of $3700 where new declining resistance starts to meet old.
Bitcoin will most likely need to have another hard retest of 3k. If it fails I see 1300 – 1800 range being likely where we would be headed but expect a significant bounce in this range… to the tune of 50% minimum. I would expect a new macro range between 3k and 1800 to form.
If Bitcoin manages to break out following a hard 3k test (meaning there is a fast move towards 4k and breaking the diagonal resistance, we will have a multi month consolidation between $3 and $6 (but more likely 5.5k)k.
My Plan is to trade the low 3ks looking for the 61.8, go to cash / short and then wait and see again at 3k.
See attached micro chart which i have been trading to.
Obviously if we break below 2950ish, im out and hunting the failed move = fast move target c. $1800-$1300 range. In reality I will probably average in / front run at 2k because I ultimately want to be long this market.
If you look at the attached Micro Sentiment anlysis, you will see that we are still currently lacking Short interest. I want to see a large increase in the shorts which meet a loarge spot buying interest at the 3k level.
I am 50/50 as to wether 3k will be the bottom and will be delighted to find out either way so we can get on with the next phase in this market.
At I expect this to play out is the second half of March at the very latest.
Best, filbfilb.
Telegram channel on t.me/cryptotraider
Twitter filbfilb
Bitcoin continues to consolidate;
Bounces off prior support yielded a c.61.8 recovery through consolidation, being capped by what is now solid declining resistance >1 year.
The consol. Occurring at 3k is showing similar behaviour to that at 6k, the corrective period so far in 2019 is the least severe in this bear market which is fairly encouraging, but low 3k need to be tested. A bounce from here would see a reasonable target of $3700 where new declining resistance starts to meet old.
Bitcoin will most likely need to have another hard retest of 3k. If it fails I see 1300 – 1800 range being likely where we would be headed but expect a significant bounce in this range… to the tune of 50% minimum. I would expect a new macro range between 3k and 1800 to form.
If Bitcoin manages to break out following a hard 3k test (meaning there is a fast move towards 4k and breaking the diagonal resistance, we will have a multi month consolidation between $3 and $6 (but more likely 5.5k)k.
My Plan is to trade the low 3ks looking for the 61.8, go to cash / short and then wait and see again at 3k.
See attached micro chart which i have been trading to.
Obviously if we break below 2950ish, im out and hunting the failed move = fast move target c. $1800-$1300 range. In reality I will probably average in / front run at 2k because I ultimately want to be long this market.
If you look at the attached Micro Sentiment anlysis, you will see that we are still currently lacking Short interest. I want to see a large increase in the shorts which meet a loarge spot buying interest at the 3k level.
I am 50/50 as to wether 3k will be the bottom and will be delighted to find out either way so we can get on with the next phase in this market.
At I expect this to play out is the second half of March at the very latest.
Best, filbfilb.
Telegram channel on t.me/cryptotraider
Twitter filbfilb
註釋
I had a good question about why 1300 potentially being so important for capitulation..There is both a volume and price gap which may need to be critically tested here.
註釋
$3700 target met
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