🔥 Comparing Bear Markets: This Time Is NOT Different

2023年4月13日

In this analysis I want to shed some light on the fact that the 2-week is an amazing tool to determine the start and end of Bitcoin trading cycles.

In this specific example, I'm comparing all three previous bear-markets. Note that the MACD has performed in a very similar fashion. The first bearish cross confirms the bear-market, and the first bullish cross confirms the next cycle.

Keep in mind that 2022 got another cross because of the July-Nov pump. In my view, crypto "topped" in March of 2021 because that's when all the technicals and on-chain analytics topped as well. Furthermore, the November 2022 top didn't make a new MACD high, making it a bearish divergence.

Looking at the chart, I think we can confirm that a new cycle has started. Sure, we will see bullish and bearish times for the foreseeable future, but I highly doubt whether we're going to make new lows from here onwards.

Share your thoughts 🙏

2023年4月14日

註釋

Third paragraph: 2022 should be 2021