BTC.........Is it Accumulation or Distribution?????

6月17日Price is with a range from 72k to 58k, with price pushing lower and trading within the 66k lvl. With the FED holding rates at 5.50% and signaling that it may hold rates at current lvls for longer, it is hitting the crypto market. There is a lot of self-fulling prophecy out there about when the FED will cut rates, with some looking at the timeframe being in September. There is a FED rate decision in July which could set the stage for the September Rate Decision. Before then, the FOMC Minutes will be coming out, along with another NFP and inflation rate reading. With traders and investors wanting to see some reprieve and a stronger FED Dot Plot pointing at 2 or more rate hikes for the year, a lower printing on the NFP and inflation and a slowing economy, will give some cheer to the market and push BTC higher. But on the other side, strong economic printing and inflation stagnating and staying where it is at or rising, will likely sweep the legs of crypto and cause price to fall. The US economy (whether you believe so or not) data is showing that there is no need to start reducing rates as of yet. GDP is around 3%, unemployment isn't to bad. Wage Growth is still up there near 5%. Inflation is still above 3% and the FED is reducing its balance sheet.

The technicals are showing mixed data which could keep price from finding a trajectory until a solid catalyst comes out. The daily chart is showing price is form either a cup and handle or a double top. If the cup and handle pattern is correct then some type of strong catalyst came out (likely the NFP printed a extremely weak number, inflation dropped considerably, a string of bad US economy data) and had enough force to break out of the very strong 72k resistance. If that resistance is broken with enough force to push it up to 75k pretty quickly, there isn't much to stop it. But if the double top is correct, then price will likely push to the 62k and test the 60k a few times before breaking below it. If the 58k is broken and price is able to hold at the 57k for a few days to a week, then price will likely drop further, below the 55k.

Data is going to be the driving point for what price will do. If data keeps printing good and bad, then it will likely cause confusion for traders and investors and they will likely take the course of exiting. There are some prominent players out there like Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) and other advocates of BTC (Robert Kiyosaki) that are likely to stay in and potentially keep price from tumbling greatly; but it still depends when the masses and hedge funds want to start piling in.

I am thinking that if BTC does drop and hits below the 55k, there is likely to be a huge spike in buying up BTC as the self-fulling prophecy will be strong. The catalyst is likely to be when the FED will start reducing rates as eventually the economy will need some assistance. But the real question, is if the economy does push into a recession, will there be another case of QE and Stimulus pushed out (bailouts) if inflation is still around 2.5%-3%?

Either way, I am still building a position on BTC even if it pushes below the 50k lvl.

6月24日

評論

Well, isn't price getting hit, pretty hard, but this is expected. With how the technicals are looking (the double top holding and the cup and handle pattern becomeing obsolete, fundamentals letting BTC know that it needs to push lower, and market sentiment moving more towards BTC not having enough energy to push higher, price is likely to continue the move lower. But, it comes to where price will find to support as the landscape seems to become more hazardous for Crypto. Will support be found at 57k, 55k, 50k, or maybe even lower? It is highly likely that hedge funds and the very wealthy will start gobbling up BTC and other Cryptos as price pushes lower. It is a waiting game. The self-fulling prophecy that traders and investors are waiting for will eventually manifest itself, potentially in 2025 (but either way, will come up) and this will spur a surge in price. BTC and Crypto in general is in a fight to remain a force in the financial market and just like in the end of 2021 when Crypto started getting hit hard and entered the Crypto Winter, this is another storm that Crypto is going through. With the amount of support BTC has, I am still going to build up a larger position and take all this as opportunties to get in at a better price.

7月27日

評論

Ummmmm........... looks like none of the patterns where correct (double top and cup and handle). But price is still in the 60k-70k range. Price did mange to push below the 60k lvl and push below the 54k lvl, but it did push back up higher. With a strong possibility that will likely start getting priced in for a FED September rate cut and the previous President Donald Trump speaking at the Nashville BTC Conference today, price might be able to trade near the 70k lvl for a little while. There is the start of Central Banks cutting rates, such as the ECB, BOC, and the SNB. There is a spark happening that may cause a big enough fire to push BTC up higher in the 4th QTR.

With how price action and the technicals not matching up with the fundamentals and market sentiment, any strong dips will likely be met with some strong buying at discounted rates.