All eyes are on Bitcoin as it reasserts market dominance by basically dumping everyone else.
After the spectacular fall to ~28k and the equally spectacular bounce up, over 40% in the hours that followed, we settled into a range between the 30k and 40k range. We saw subsequent attempts to test the downside, as Bitcoin fell from short term bearish patterns only to bounce off a rising support, leading to higher lows along the way. This created a symmetrical triangle, ranging between the January High price and the January Close.
In the near term we will break out from that triangle but we need to look for a breakout from this January price range. We know that industry/MM are buying back- OTC investment is up 10x in the past 48 hours. Retail is sufficiently capitulated, and overleveraged traders liquidated - so the market is healthier, albeit down in price significantly.
Note: we are soon approaching the monthly options expiry. Typically when this happens we see sell pressure lift and the market make a recovery for a couple weeks. Will this pattern hold true in May? We can't predict the future but its probable. If this happens trade safely, it could be a bull trap so IMPORTANT- set your stoploss.
After the spectacular fall to ~28k and the equally spectacular bounce up, over 40% in the hours that followed, we settled into a range between the 30k and 40k range. We saw subsequent attempts to test the downside, as Bitcoin fell from short term bearish patterns only to bounce off a rising support, leading to higher lows along the way. This created a symmetrical triangle, ranging between the January High price and the January Close.
In the near term we will break out from that triangle but we need to look for a breakout from this January price range. We know that industry/MM are buying back- OTC investment is up 10x in the past 48 hours. Retail is sufficiently capitulated, and overleveraged traders liquidated - so the market is healthier, albeit down in price significantly.
- 1.) from that triangle. Symmetrical triangles are neutral often continuation patterns. So look for a breakout and confirmation on that triangle short term. I don't recommend taking heavy leveraged positions because price is volatile and a breakout could reverse as quick as it breaks out.
- 2.) This is the bigger picture- I'm looking for a breakout past the JAN High or JAN Close .. and confirmation on that will be a strong signal for upcoming price action and whether we see more downside, or a recovery. So far the price action appears to be respecting that range.
Note: we are soon approaching the monthly options expiry. Typically when this happens we see sell pressure lift and the market make a recovery for a couple weeks. Will this pattern hold true in May? We can't predict the future but its probable. If this happens trade safely, it could be a bull trap so IMPORTANT- set your stoploss.
註釋
Small update with areas to watch for.註釋
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