alexyeoh
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The only wave count that doesn't look ugly to me

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
At first I believed we had finished 5 waves up, and were on an ABC correction. But this ABC correction refuses to look credible.

BTC             price refuses to give up going up, when I'm expecting it to go down. So I redrew the wave count so that the recent high was actually the end of wave 3, not wave 5, we have just finished wave 4 and have started wave 5.

Now although I'm not entirely convinced this is accurate, it is possible. Check out the beginning of wave 3 - which started out very similar to how wave 5 is starting out.

I'm not sure how to invalidate one of the counts, other than waiting for the current wave to surpass the last high of $8400 (confirms wave 5), or go to $7700. The range is far too wide for my liking.

The problem is that we are on an ABC correction, it's very hard to determine whether we've passed wave B and are on Wave C, or if we're still on wave B.

If we are still on Wave B, then there isn't an easy way to draw wave A as 12345 waves, because every different way of drawing wave 4 crosses into wave 1. Therefore we must be on subwave 2 of wave C, but subwave 2 is longer than wave B which makes it suspicious.

Looking at other indicators like the 4hr RSI and OBV, it seems to indicate that we are on a bullish wave right now but I've been burned too many times to take this as a certainty.
評論: Made a followup post - finally find an alternative count that doesn't look ugly. Both are possible at this stage based on other corroborating indicators. And that sucks, I know.


I can tell you I haven't been sure about this structure so I haven't posted one way or the other but these are the only two counts I can come up with. Bullish scenario in red ending 5th wave diagonal and we just saw wave 4 complete and it goes up toward 8500 (not looking likely). Or it goes down just like you have posted and confirms bearish correction complete.
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