BTCUSD looking for support

2020年2月21日

First of all some words to the crash 2 days ago. There have been many signs for this pullback. Bitcoin had shown signs of weakness, Ethereum gave us a double top formation, and the overall market was overbought. All of this combined lead me into selling a large position at the top, expecting a pullback.
I think another 7% drop to the 9k area is definitely in the cards. Ethereum would then drop to around 230. If the bearish momentum doesn't fade afterwards an 8k target is also reasonable, with Ethereum dropping to 200.

On several exchanges there have been many positions liquidated amid the recent drop. I think this proves an important rule, when it comes to trading: BUY rumors and SELL news. Social media has gone crazy about crypto surging again to astronomical heights. What we saw 2 days ago, was smart money taken from the market.

Let's have a look at the longer time frames



On the weekly we had 5 weeks of constant higher highs and higher lows. Everything over 8272 would now be a higher low.
You could also see the recent run up as one move. Then everything over 6909 would be a higher low.
So I think it's too early to say that the bulls are losing their steam. Many Analysts change their minds on a daily basis, what you can do, but then you have a stressful time these days.

Another chart to put in mind is the BTC dominance chart



On the daily it looks like it found some support. If this plays out we will see more correlation between the coins again, what would drag the Alts further down if BTC's price falls to a further low.

2020年2月21日

註釋

That's the recent analysis auf Dimitri Lavrov, a trader I've followed for several years. Maybe it's also interesting for you

2020年2月21日

註釋

Another analysis I liked in the recent days is this one by QuantumHedgeFund. After adjusting his levels his recent analysis is pretty accurate.

2020年2月23日

註釋

There we go. The price pumped upwards to the 10k area, got rejected for now.
I wouldn't call that a healthy movement, the price shifted from sideways to pump to sideways. RSI isn't happy.
We're currently still waiting for the US session so I think, we will see more movement in the next 12 hours.

2020年2月24日

註釋

Yesterday's pump got corrected as expected and we reached the bottom of the channel at 9500. Like yesterday we have the US Session still to go. If the price falls further down, there is a possible minor support area between 9400 and 9300 set by the recent swing lows.

2020年2月25日

註釋

BTC also passed the 9500 support and is now hovering between 9400 and 9300 as expected. The overall sentiment is getting more bearish as you can clearly see in the news.
I'm still holding onto my strategy with 8800 as target. The area between 9000 and 8800 should be a favorable area for shorts to close and longs to open. So I expect a strong bounce from this area.

2020年2月26日

交易結束：目標達成

Closed short trade with great profit. I already opened a part of the now coming long position. But I think, we still have some more downside to come. Final Target for me will be 8.370 USD, which I think is quite nice buy-in, even if the price falls a little further.