1. Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance Zone (~87,000 - 88,000): BTC recently rejected from this zone, showing selling pressure.
Current Price (~83,522): Trading near a key level, with recent bearish momentum.
Support Levels:
82,450: A short-term support zone where price may react.
78,764: A major support level if the price continues downward.
2. Market Structure & Trend
BTC saw a strong bullish rally up to 87,000 before a sharp decline.
A lower high formation indicates possible trend reversal.
Price currently consolidating between 84,713 and 82,450.
A break below 82,450 could trigger a bearish move toward 78,764.
3. Candlestick Pattern & Price Action
Large bearish candle from 87,000 suggests strong selling pressure.
Price formed a bearish rejection wick, confirming resistance.
Expect a pullback toward 84,500 before further downside.
4. Potential Scenarios
Bearish Scenario: Rejection from 84,500 → Break below 82,450 → Drop towards 78,764.
Bullish Scenario: If BTC reclaims 84,500, it could retest 87,000.
Resistance Zone (~87,000 - 88,000): BTC recently rejected from this zone, showing selling pressure.
Current Price (~83,522): Trading near a key level, with recent bearish momentum.
Support Levels:
82,450: A short-term support zone where price may react.
78,764: A major support level if the price continues downward.
2. Market Structure & Trend
BTC saw a strong bullish rally up to 87,000 before a sharp decline.
A lower high formation indicates possible trend reversal.
Price currently consolidating between 84,713 and 82,450.
A break below 82,450 could trigger a bearish move toward 78,764.
3. Candlestick Pattern & Price Action
Large bearish candle from 87,000 suggests strong selling pressure.
Price formed a bearish rejection wick, confirming resistance.
Expect a pullback toward 84,500 before further downside.
4. Potential Scenarios
Bearish Scenario: Rejection from 84,500 → Break below 82,450 → Drop towards 78,764.
Bullish Scenario: If BTC reclaims 84,500, it could retest 87,000.
交易進行
Fundamental Analysis1. Macroeconomic Factors
US Interest Rate Policy: Recent statements from the Federal Reserve suggest possible rate cuts later in 2025. Lower interest rates could lead to increased liquidity in crypto.
Stock Market Correlation: Bitcoin often correlates with the NASDAQ and S&P 500. If traditional markets remain stable, BTC may see support.
2. Bitcoin-Specific Fundamentals
BTC ETF Demand: The approval of Bitcoin ETFs has increased institutional buying. However, inflows have slowed in recent weeks, affecting price momentum.
Halving Cycle (April 2024 Impact): Historically, Bitcoin tends to rally post-halving. The long-term outlook remains bullish despite short-term corrections.
On-Chain Data: Exchange reserves are decreasing, suggesting accumulation. However, whale selling in the past week has led to a correction.
3. News & Sentiment
Regulatory Developments: Any negative crypto regulations (e.g., US SEC policies) could impact short-term sentiment.
Geopolitical Uncertainty: Events like the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions can increase market volatility.
Conclusion
Short-Term Bias: Bearish below 84,500, with a possible drop to 78,764.
Long-Term Bias: Bullish post-halving, assuming no major negative news.
Key Levels to Watch: 82,450 (support), 84,500 (resistance).
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