When to buy the dip

2018年3月31日

So, it seems that the bullmarket continuation scenario is getting more and more unlikely by the day. This scenario would have brought us to 100K sometime this year.
However, due to the continued weakness of bitcoin, a bearmarket seems much more likely :(

But how can you trade a bearmarket? Well, it seems that one has to wait for the right buying opportunity, when a dip occurs, which goes significantly below the weekly bollinger band.

Historically, in the 2014-2015 bearmarket, every time btc dumped strongly below the lower weekly bollinger band, a very strong bounce took place, about 50-100% bounce, every single time.

So, trading this market is pretty simple: wait till it dumps below weekly bband, buy, sell at the bounce, after 30-50% rebound, to be on the safe side.
Rinse, repeat. Wait for the next dump.

And then, in 2019, the low will be reached at some point, and one can start buying good old cheap coins at around 2K :)
Because the next bullrun WILL come, starting in 2020 with the halving.

The chances for the continuation of the bullmarket this year, are not zero however. They are small, but this scenario is also not completely off the table.

2018年12月15日

註釋

I just looked at the first chart from march, where it was getting more obvious that we'd be seeing a bearmarket in 2018/19, instead of the bullmarket continuation scenario.
This chart is still valid and still can be used as an estimate for adapting one's buying strategy. I still think that 2019 will see a flat period in the 1500-3500 range, bouncing around between those two levels, but mostly flat. 2020 is probably the year when we'll start the next bullrun.