NotGemini
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Why We Look At Log Scale!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
For waves that occur over long periods of time looking at a normal arithmetic price scale lacks the ability to normalize exponential growth. Under these circumstances, by looking at the logarithmic scale we see a different perspective on how price has been moving. This also makes it easier to plot waves.
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Here's the analysis
on the largest scale, it seems to me that BTC             just completed wave 3, which makes sense the growth was ridiculous during this wave
By that same token, our current correction seems relatively small in relation to the entire graph which still makes me believe that wave 4 is not yet completed
Finally, this also means that we will be beginning wave 5 upon completing our correction and ideally we should see another hefty move up

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*Warning*
IF this is right then when we finish this next wave we will have completed an entire 5 wave cycle and it would be followed by a massive correction
評論: Wave 5 has a steeper slope than wave 3, Ignore that i didnt plot an actual projection for 5 its was just to show that we have another move up incoming
評論: adjusted look of wave 5, bit more reasonable now
評論: Here is a retracement of A, this allows us to get a good idea of what we are expecting for B, the .382 tends to be the most common so that is where I am labeling B.
Next lesson: Why we should use fibs to measure our wave count and most common retracement levels for the waves.
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@Acel, haha love the idea I could add that as a comment to this chart, or do you think that I should make it completely separate
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Acel NotGemini
@NotGemini, i think you should really revise your count.
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@Acel, Don't worry there is a fib relationship between all the waves, if you haven't already i really suggest taking a look at this book "Elliott wave principle- key to market behavior by frost and prechter" they do an excellent job breaking down these concepts and explaining why a semi-log scale is extremely useful to addressing the issue of exponential growth
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Acel NotGemini
@NotGemini, thanks for the suggestion but i have read it already. This is not what i meant about the fibs. Extended 5ths dont fully retrace, but what do i know?

Good luck.
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@Acel, ohhh okay I see where you're coming from. In that case, I think the issue is that while wave 5 had a large movement in price, in terms of looking at a logarithmic scale we can see that it was still smaller than wave 3... the growth during three was about 7.5x and the growth during 5 was closer to 6.6x, moreover this was also the completion of wave 3 of a larger degree which is why we are not retracing a wave 5 in the first place.
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@Acel, and here is another example
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May I ask how you are determining your B target? I have seen some charts showing B around 17K, and C around 4.8K
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NotGemini JoshuaVanier
@JoshuaVanier Hey, so for B I am using the .382 retrace of A, this point isn't 100% but it is more likely, and for C I chose 2.8k because it was where I have Subwave 4 (in orange) ending, and that is generally where corrections end
+1 回覆
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