I don't have any Bitcoin, but there are a lot of people wanting to know if this is the beginning of the end or a buy the dip opportunity. So here is my take and forecast for the next couple of weeks.
We are now in the middle of the correction and right at the point where it is the moment of truth. So this is either the continuation of the C wave down or we are going for one more move up to finish the B wave and then Go down for the C wave. A close below 12,820 would make a new low and close below the trend line, meaning that bears are still in control and the forecast would be the Yellow (A) Candles. A close Above 15,015 would mark a solid close above the 20MA and most likely we will get a continuation up before going down to finish the correction like the forecast shown by the Red (B) Candles.
Good Luck!
評論
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Forecast "A" was the winner. The C wave already broke the low of the A wave, so the ABC structure is very clear and in theory could be over as soon as we get an impulse up.
With the velocity of this last move, I would expect one more move down, so I wouldn't recommend buying now. The price is in a low volume area so it can move pretty quickly (We broke the 61.8 Fib line and could get to the 78.6).
If we find buyers and break the yellow trendline, I would expect 2 sided action before continuation (that would make a more complex structure).
a 45% down move since December, makes this the 7th largest down move in Bitcoin history. Recovery from the drawdowns that have been over 49% have range between 66 days and 631 days.
It may be that we will have consolidation for several months. Since btc had a continuous uptrend for some months is is not unlikely.
AlexanderGotay
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@Cryptomerchant, Yes. For sure it can be in a +/- 4k range for a while, looking to stabilization. Just don't buy at the top of the range.
NomeSobrenome
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If it led to the worst, will not be the end. But it will take a lot of time to delusion wears off.
AlexanderGotay
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@NomeSobrenome, The worst would be the end, since that would be zero. Not saying it will happen, just stating what I consider to be the worst case scenario.