Selling Pressure and Overbought Status - Short on BTC H1

2018年10月14日

BTC rose out of the range we had been exploring for the past three days but strong selling pressure above $6,250 pushed prices back down to test the sideways resistance Bitcoin seemingly broke out from a few hours ago. This sideways resistance is now forming a pennant with the longer-term trend-line. If this selling pressure continues I expect to see Bitcoin break downwards from this pennant and fall back below the sideways resistance.

A couple of other possibilities are highlighted on my chart:

If BTC does not break downward soon we may travel up and along the sideways resistance closer to the pennant's endpoint. Remaining close to the lower boundary is bearish and I would still anticipate a break downward.

If BTC approaches the upper trendline we may break upwards closer to the pennant's endpoint. I don't think this is likely.

2018年10月14日

註釋

Bitcoin has broken downward from the pennant and is following my first path as expected. I am up 2.5% in unrealised profit at the moment.

2018年10月14日

註釋

Closed 50% of my initial short position for 2.65% realised profit.

Holding any open position is very risky at the moment as the market is at a critical decision point so I am being conservative and taking profits.

2018年10月14日

註釋

Closed the remaining 50% of my initial short position for 2% realised profit. Trade is now closed.

BTC is approaching the sideways resistance once again. While there is still potential that we will fall soon, I've closed my short position to preserve profits and will look for another good entry point.

2018年10月14日

手動結束交易

Final Realised Profit: 2.35%

2018年10月14日

交易進行

Opened a new short position above $6,200.

2018年10月16日

註釋

Added to my short position at higher levels. Entry price is now $6,350.

I expect BTC to bounce off the long-term trendline and fall again.