big triangle on BTC: up or down?

btc is now on the 38.2% fibo retracement of previous upward trend (from 17517) and bottom line of a probable triangle. i personally think we will go up and touch r3 yearly pivot at 46140 which forms a resistance region in company with 4.68 fibo extension and triangle target at 47800-48000. then the big bearish trend will begin. or at least a second touch of the ATH at 42000