BTC: Crucial Test going on NOW

Back on March 21st I gave you guys the long term downtrend line (seen here in blue).

We've broken out of the short term channel I pointed out a few days ago, and now are bouncing directly off of that resistance.

This is both good and bad: If we break through then it should be a nice support (albiet a descending one). But breaking through is going to be difficult.

If we break through the next crucial test is 10k. After that? We're back in solid bull territory. If we fail this test we'll go back down and see if 7475 holds, if not then we're back to the previous lows.

Sometimes the simpliest TA is the best. I don't work with fractals. I don't work with elliot waves. I don't even use fibs. All of them provide more noise than signal. What doesn't? Simple resistance and support analysis, and trend lines.

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Closed above the resistance line. Hopefully it'll become a support line instead.

We should wait for the daily to also close above it to confirm the change.

If it does then we have a real chance at moving up another thousand dollars to around $8,900. That's the next major resistance line on the daily chart.

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We decisively closed the daily above the resistance line. Early indicators show it should be a support now.

We're moving up toward $8,900 as expected. There are additional weak resistance points at 8,357 and 8,600. They're worth looking out for, but personally I'm not super worried about them at the moment.

The real test is getting above 8,900 and then 10k. If that happens then I'll be much more comfortable saying the bears have gone back to their caves to hibernate.

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We can view this as a bullflag, or a triangle.

Watch for consolidation, and then a price movement in the next 26 hrs. Good opportunity for those who like swing trades.

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So obviously it broke upward. But what's up with this drop?

Honestly it's not a big deal yet, we haven't even tested our next support level at 7530.

We are, however, in another short term triangle. It's on the hourly so I'm not expect massive movements, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a $400 price movement (up to $8,394 or down to $7,530).

The movement in the next day or two likely won't really mean that much (though crypto always moves faster than I expect). Instead we should be focusing on whether we break our supports or resistance lines.

The point were, are, and remain $7,530 and $8,915. Until we pass one of those things are still up in the air. But a bit consolidation won't hurt us in the interim.

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P.S. Interesting how the merge line on this triangle is almost the same as the last one. If this goes up this could be a new mild support

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New short term support showing up on the hourly, which makes the current movement appear to be a descending triangle.

I don't expect the new support to last more than 1-3 days, but if it surprises me then that'd be good news for the bulls on their climb up.

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And...confirmed. Would you look at that? Bounce from the descending line AND the 8k support. Nice bullish sign.

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Actively testing 8,900. This is the last major resistance point before 10k.

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Third attempt at 8,900.

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Got two bounces off of $8,900 -- so it is now a light support! We'll get confirmation at $9,200. If that happens we should be all clear to make a run up to 10k. Good place for quick swing trades for those of you who like them.

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Oops forgot to include the chart: