BTCUSD $30,000 After Consolidation Period

2020年12月3日

I’ve been trading and charting on the 4-hour a lot recently and sometimes you need to zoom out to the bigger timeframes to get a sense of the bigger picture. Looking at the chart of Bitcoin on the weekly timeframe we can see the top cryptocurrency posted 7 consecutive green weekly candles before topping out this week and hitting the $18953 monthly resistance (the body of the 2017 Bull Run ATH candlestick).

This is the one of the longest consecutive runs up in Bitcoin history and this move is exhausted. On this weekly close if BTC is underneath the $19666 level then for the next weeks Bitcoin is going to consolidate between the $16124 - $19666 range before surpassing the old ATH price. Bitcoin is not done going up yet, however, for right now it is tired of climbing and needs to take breather.

BTC did backtest the $16124 monthly level and looks primed to move up on the 1-hour & 4-hour charts but nothing really too major. I'm expecting a decent period of consolidation / accumulation while the altcoins catch up to the price of Bitcoin before it continues moving up. Bitcoin has already matched par with its 2017 Bull Run ATH price while the rest of the cryptocurrencies are still down more than 50% from their ATH price. Altcoins will catch up as well and match even or break even higher than their previous ATH. This is all also confirmed by the ever-so constantly falling Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Index. I think this entire monthly candle will be a flat period of trading in the zones of $16124 - $19666 that I mentioned earlier, represented on the Monthly timeframe by a big Doji candlestick.

For the first time I drew out these Fib levels because you can’t use support & resistance anymore to gauge where the price is going to go when climbing to new highs. The Trend based Fibonacci extension tool should be properly used after a period of impulse like this one we just saw up from $4500 to $19666. This is the biggest point of resistance in Bitcoin history and there will be an accumulation period that is happening right now. After Bitcoin is done accumulating underneath the $19666 resistance level here are the Fib TP levels that are placed:

0.236 🎯 $19576
0.382 🎯 $21703.26
0.5 🎯 $23421.93
0.618 🎯 $23421.93
0.786 🎯 $27587.51
1 🎯 $30704

The 0.236 level at $19576 perfectly matches up with the monthly resistance level at $19666 as well as 0 starts at $16139 with the weekly support I have drawn out at $16124. So this Fib is decently accurate according to my TA, but as always use your best judgment when trading.

Also to note that the 2017 bull run all time high will eventually look like how the 2013 bull run looks like now on the chart, like little dots. In 2013 I don’t really think anybody was predicting that Bitcoin could go to $10,000 or even hit $20,000 but here we are now and those 2013 levels don’t mean a thing anymore. History repeats itself and that’s exactly whats going to happen with the price of Bitcoin today compared to the 2017 high, we are going to be like ‘Hey remember the 2017 bull run with the ICO craze?’

Every halving the Stock-to-Flow ratio of Bitcoin log10s. In 2012 the fair value price of Bitcoin was $1,000 and in late 2013 Bitcoin saw a price of a little over $1,300. In 2016 the fair value price of Bitcoin was $10,000 and in late 2017 Bitcoin saw a price a little over $19,000.

Now in 2020 the fair value price of Bitcoin is $100,000 and in late 2021 we will see a price a little over $_______

Thank you all for your continued support and let me know your thoughts on where you think the price of Bitcoin will be at the end of 2021

Cheers traders