CRCVDE

BTCUSD Logaritmic Chart forecast January 2018

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
Dear Traders,

This is my forecast for the comming period:

within one week:

- I see Bitcoin             fall towards the .78 fib level.

TA:
Reason for this is that this will confirm
1) a beautifull Elliot wave C that fits (i think) perfectly the Elliot wave criteria (A being as long as C)
2) we see a diagonal .38 fib. channel support drawn from bitcoins             low and peak in 2013
3) .78 fib, retracement within the intermediate cycle
4) it would fit exactly the timeframe of each intermediate cycle

FA:
It's the end of the year... people who have been sitting on their BTC             for months or years will probably find this a perfect moment to cash out...

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


after hitting the dip around 8000.....

- I see bitcoin             rise towards 40000 in January and go back to 8000 within two days!!! 80% percent decrease (I know this sounds insane....)

TA:
Reason for this is that this would mirror the the situation back in 2013. Bitcoin             touched the .78 fib channel and decreased 80% in 3 days from 250 to 50.

FA:
It's the beginning of the new year... 2018 wil be the year of crypto everyone sees this as a nice start to be involved!

Let me know what you'all think about it!

Good luck and a Happy new year!!
Now I do want to say thank you for you guys providing this analysis because I know 99% of you just want to share knowledge, help other people and share your success.
+1 回覆
I realized one thing after reading guys charts here everyday multiple times a day. NO ONE KNOWS WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN. This technical chart analysis its only to make you feel confident and not be anxious when you execute trade, but it really doesn't meant anything. basically your taking a 50/50 shot. i can flip a coin 10 times and be right 70% of the time but in my mind I justified it do to the analysis and if my primary analysis didn't work then it must of been the secondary analysis that plaid out . The only thing i see that kinda works is look at a long term trend and trade to hold , but if your are day/week trading. PURE LUCK
+2 回覆
CRCVDE ogoz23
@ogoz23, True! want to add I wasn't saying that I am sure about my analysis :) I do understand it's a gamble. It always is. the only thing I can do is find ways to support my idea and let the risk reward ratio be lager then 2 or 3. but thanks for your vision anyway!! :)
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Box1515 ogoz23
@ogoz23, I liked your comment because I do agree for the most part in that it's very hard to predict what's going to happen next with any real certainty, no matter how good the TA is. However, with good TA we're not talking 50/50, but with a degree of certainty that varies depending on how much the various indicators are in agreement with one another. If half are indicating up and half down, then ok, 50/50. However, if 9/10 are indicating a move in the same direction then the probability that we're going in that direction goes up considerably. And that's all TA is - a matter of probabilities. Also, keep in mind that most crypto traders are technical traders so if 90% of the analysts agree on a given movement it's largely irrelevant whether their analysis would have played out had they sat on their hands because their shared belief is very likely to produce a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we all believe it's going up and thus we all buy in, the price goes up and if we all believe it's going down and we all sell, the price goes down.
+1 回覆
ogoz23 Box1515
@Box1515, well said !
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excellent...technicals...but it can go to 25k and then go down to 5k.....as well in january
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Sounds like you are guessing from feeling, but seem to be good
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