BTC ETF and Halving - will the hype disappoint?

BTCUSD cycle tops have had greater alignment to peaks in China’s 10 year rate, and lows have had greater alignment to the level of global net liquidity. Relative to extremes at those data points, halvings almost appear neutral.

This leads me to be cautious of too much market optimism generated for a combination of spot ETF approval and the upcoming halving. I'm also cautious of expecting a large "sell the news" drop off. I think that we'll see some price runup leading up and followed by some profit taking, and then gradual continuation.

I'm long term bullish on these events as they are forward progress for bitcoin, but they are neutral to my near term strategy.