Extra Bitcoin Update, SP500 Fractal
已更新
S&P' of the last few days, looks so similar. I had this in mind for BTC', something like this at least for the right shoulder. But the first wave down of BTC was much bigger than i thought it would be.
So of course this fractal is not very reliable, since it's an S&P' fractal and not of Bitcoin' itself, but looks like it has al the same stages. So worth to watch it if we see another small drop and a good bounce up after. So i would only start to use it, if we see a good bounce up first. There is just too much weakness still in the market. But, the low Open Intrest from the past week, what was bugging me all the time for a continuation of the rally, has been moving up again. It's 370 mil now and went up while the price was dropping. Now this doesn't say a lot, but it says we have much more bulls now since the 3800 and down. Of course also just as much bears as well.
If we see another drop happening, with OI increasing even more and the drop becoming smaller than the previous one, than it becomes more likely that accumulation is going on. But we still have not seen a good bounce up, so as long as we don't see that happening, it's still very dangerous to look up. Because all the alts are in very bad spots at the moment. Most are below necklines of H&S patterns. So we need a push above those necklines to make a bear trap.
So of course this fractal is not very reliable, since it's an S&P' fractal and not of Bitcoin' itself, but looks like it has al the same stages. So worth to watch it if we see another small drop and a good bounce up after. So i would only start to use it, if we see a good bounce up first. There is just too much weakness still in the market. But, the low Open Intrest from the past week, what was bugging me all the time for a continuation of the rally, has been moving up again. It's 370 mil now and went up while the price was dropping. Now this doesn't say a lot, but it says we have much more bulls now since the 3800 and down. Of course also just as much bears as well.
If we see another drop happening, with OI increasing even more and the drop becoming smaller than the previous one, than it becomes more likely that accumulation is going on. But we still have not seen a good bounce up, so as long as we don't see that happening, it's still very dangerous to look up. Because all the alts are in very bad spots at the moment. Most are below necklines of H&S patterns. So we need a push above those necklines to make a bear trap.
註釋
Look at those bastards, all the bearishness of the alts, gone in 1 sweep. Fooling the market once again. Now this is obviously a short squeeze (Bart Move). The 3800 should hold to be reliable and the 3750 should be the max from what i can see now.註釋
So instead of another small drop, they made a Bart move instead. So buying all the shorting which would normally make that last drop and now they pushed it up as soon as the selling volume dried up. Based on the fractal, we should see a good bull flag form now. Can't say if it will be a small one, of one that will take money hours. As long as it stays above the 3800ish.註釋
I forgot to mention, the Bitmex futures expiration of the Dec fut was earlier today and the CME expiration was also just before the pump. If we hold the 3800ish and move like July, than we have our explanation for the low volume) drop of the past days註釋
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