I am seeing divergences on multiple indicators, below is the 4 hour and
The 1 hour and
Our Daily Tom sequential count closes in 2 hours as of this writing, we have daily support levels at 7685 on that we have tested already, I expect a test of this again, if we break it then I expect a further correction down to low 7 thousand.
*Note: It is entirely possible we get one more push to an all time high and then have a correction for 1-5 days. Difficulty adjustment happens for ₿itcoin in about 3.8 days, it is a potential that B cash continues its attack ;) on ₿itcoin in this time further driving the price down for a correction.
Tread carefully in these markets as ₿itcoin has tons of institutional money flowing into it. $10,000 per BTC is not out of the question by the end of the year, but we are needing a bit of correction at this point.
We have a bearish TK cross on the Bitfinex hourly. Bitstamp has been more accurate lately but this is worth noting.
Key points to watch currently for a correction: 8146, 7901 on stamp, 7933 on finex. After that daily levels are Bitstamp 7673 to watch for a possible bounce or serious correction confirmation.
A correction like this is typically a slow bleed at first as the bearish divergence plays out detailing a struggle between the bears and bulls. We see lots of whipsaw price action until one of them breaks their power, in this case it still shows the bulls being the potential break and the bears taking over.
Corrections can change an entire outlook with technical analysis, so calling the bottom here needs to wait. Too many support levels at this point and BTC is bullish by nature.
Also, worth watching is the BCH wave analysis here for a confirmation of BTC's correction.
The 4 hour Tom Demark Sequential closes its 8th candle on a bear trend in 2 hours possibly signaling a trend reversal that will be short lived.
I believe we see a small bounce then a continuation down to that daily support level of $7676 on Bitstamp. From there I will gauge if we continue our correction down to lower price levels. At this point I do believe it is likely.
Remember this in the comment above?
This is what I see from that rally that just occurred....
Bitstamp 15 minute, shows an even more pronounced divergence, the only indicator I saw on this time frame and exchange that did not was the RSI. More time frames coming to confirm....
The Bitfinex 60 minute is still showing the same type of divergences on other indicators, but again the RSI was inline with the rally. There is rally attempts still happening so tread carefully, but this can be expected from some a large rise then drop.
4 hour (Top image) shows divergences, 1 hour (Bottom image) Bitstamp does too, Chalkin Money Flow, MACD, MFI, all are out of whack, however OBV showed accuracy there. All of twitter seems to think the bears got faked out, but I warn them: Be careful what you call out before you can confirm it through technical analysis.
Nothing can be confirmed there as for bullishness, A green candle does not indicate a bear reversal or vice versa. If we break up in a real bull trend with no divergences then that was not predictable other than feelings and just general BTC psychology. (which does work on an occasion) I challenge anyone to show me otherwise through convincing TA.
I would love nothing more than a massive bull run but TA shows the bears got exhausted on the 4 hour and the Bulls were able to pop it up. Nothing can be confirmed on this till we break support yet again, so if you are in a leverage position..... SET A STOP LOSS no matter the direction it is in. Bull signs could come out of this and start a rally again, but currently I see bearish divergences that do not add up. 1+6-8= 5 in this case. So lets see if ₿ corrects my math or if the hidden signs are real.
Also, this is not the time to open a new position in my opinion, the entry is not safe no matter the direction, if you have some open already with safe position then great, let the direction confirm but that is what I see as for the strength of this last rally.
I recommend you take a look at the price and check what I have mentioned on your own TA before acting on anything.... Bulls want this rally to happen as do I so I can move on with talking about something other than bearish divergences.
I will update this as "cancelled" if truly bullish indicators show their face.
Most traders who were short had there stop loss hit either close to entry or right above it. Market moves like that are interesting and can tell you a lot, technically we crossed the ATH but going long will require some analysis of good entry. I will either update this idea or a new analysis when the market settles and indicators become clear.