BTC/USD: Bear Flag Pattern Analysis 1H (Aug. 05)

2020年8月5日

X Force Global Analysis:


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In this post, we analyze Bitcoin's hourly chart through technical analysis, in order to determine its bullish and bearish probabilities.

Analysis

- After a huge drop testing the 10.5k support, Bitcoin has been consolidating within an ascending parallel channel
- While it has formed higher lows and higher highs, this could be seen as a form of distribution before another leg down
- The setup appears to be a typical bear flag pattern, in which prices consolidate in a slight uptrend before breaking down for another bearish leg
- The Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are aligned in reverse: the 100 SMA is at the very top, with the 50 SMA and 20 SMA below it.
- Bitcoin is currently testing the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement resistance
- Above it, it also faces the middle trend-line resistance of the ascending channel.

Market Sentiment:

Long short ratios are at 70 to 30, with significantly more long positions. While this reflects the dominantly bullish market sentiment, it also could be concerning from a contrarian point of view, as we have recently seen billions of long positions get liquidated from a sharp drop.

What We Believe

We believe that a corrective move is highly probable given the technical evidence substantiating cases for both bullish and bearish scenarios.

Let us know what you think in the comment section below


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