botje11
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Bitcoin puzzle solved, op to the next puzzle :) 8K/9K's?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
Okay people, finally we have some movement, finally Bitcoin             is doing what it's supposed to do, why we love the crypto world, VOLATILITY!!!!

For almost 2 weeks bears and bulls got frustrated with all that sideways action. When you look at a few of my older posts i have been calling for a minimum target of 7700 but my gut was saying we should go the 8K levels and maybe even the 9K levels, so people start to become bulls again. I made some long trades in these weeks, some very profitable and some much less. I still have a long position from the 6710 i opened 2 days ago after we made that strange drop from the 7200 to 76xx again.

I do have to admit, the first attempt when we reached the 7500 i knew there was a chance we could drop again, but at the second attempt when i went long at 6560 and said we could make a W (double) bottom, i was quite convinced we would go higher. So that drop we made from the 7200 straight to 66xx was a big surprise for me and it did confuse me a bit. but after i saw the price was stabilizing around 6700 i bought again, even though we were inside a bear flag . But that's because the bigger picture has more weight that the smaller time frame and i still believed my theory was the right one to follow.
This squeeze was much bigger than i anticipated of course, but the reason that happened was because the range in the 6K's took much longer and short positions were getting bigger.

For now, price is quite stable around 7550/7800. As long as we stay above the 7500ish this impulse move is still super bullish . If we drop below that level than things could slow down. If we drop below the 7200ish than things will/could change! Chances we drop below 7000 are less than 10% for me, if we drop below the 7500ish, those odds get slightly higher.

Some of those levels you see in the chart, were levels i showed 2 weeks ago. They are not exact calculated targets, but they are resistance levels that the market will try to get at and make an attempt to break them. The first target 7700 is clearly reached already. The next target is around 8400/8300, this one won't be easy to break. The biggest challenge will the 9000/9200 resistance. Here i will probably start to build up a short position again. So long as price stays below the 9800/10.000, i will still remain long term bearish . My early followers know i am a big bear on this market for at least this year, since i shorted BTC             at the 11.600 and made several trades in between, i have been saying we NEED another move up before we make a big drop again. The market was extremely week the last few weeks, that's the main reason many people became bears. For my bigger picture plan price should stay below the 10.000/10.200, if we go above these levels i will be forced to change my game plan. But it's a long way before we get there.

Now don't get your hopes to high people, the big rally was mostly short position's getting forced to close, it could be a start for a big impulse wave, but it's not the best fundament to build a very big rally on. So don't count at high prices above 10K yet, much to soon!

For more information and if you want to learn something, read some of my previous analysis, even the old ones.

If you like what i have been doing lately, give me some likes, that's a way to say thank you :)
評論: Price has to stay above 7500/7550 to stay in the high short term bullish sentiment
評論: First attempt to break the flag failed. Should stay above 7640 to keep this momentum going now for this attack
評論: Think we have a small range now
評論: They are forming higher lows on the short time frame, keeping momentum high of this bull flag. If they succeed with this attempt to break that area we could see another small rally above the 8000
評論: Lets see if it can make a small bull flag here from this 150 point jump
評論: That bull flag i mentioned earlier, got extended to much. But it stayed above that support line, so it's still bullish on this time frame but the speed of this move is probably gone now. We could be seeing a similar move as we saw a month ago when we made a similar move from the 7250 low. The bull flag got extended but was moving slowly upwards. Means we could go on for a day or so and move between 7700 and up towards the 8100/8200 within the next 24 hours. This theory only counts when price stays above that potential support line. That move from 7250 showed a small drop below that support line, but each move is different of course so no telling what could happen.

I have moved the stop of my position to around 7400. Because you never know guys, it was a big short covering rally, so unless real buyers are prepared to get in and start buying, there is still a small chance this could all be a trap just to shake out all the short positions. But i give that a 10% chance given that we stay above the 7500
評論: I just answered a comment of a follower here, and i thought it was worth posting it here. Now please don't start to hate me or whatever, i am just trying to give you guys a realistic view of how markets can work.......



Hello and thank you for the kind words and advice :). I know what you mean and i am always aware of certain things. Of course it's always great to be right, it's also the reason i have though about stopping to post on TradingView because it does cloud my judgement sometimes. However, i always tell people that i will determine my strategy when we get there. When we were still above 13K i was very bearish, but i never called for prices like 6K or 4K. It's just to far away and for a day trader like it has no value actually. I know it's possible that we have reached the bottom now, actually i even talked about it with some people that it is a realistic possibility. Thing is, i am a bear about this market not because of TA, not even at all. I have a million other reasons. But markets always do what they want and i know that. And i know only a small amount of money is needed to push this market way up again.

I was calling 7500/6000/4000 levels like a month ago, but i certainly did not have the strategy to go long in the 6K's and expecting a big move towards the 8K's and 9K's. I have decided that when we got here. Just like i am able to change my mind IF we reach the 9K levels. If i really start to see clear signs that the market has gotten really strong, i could change my strategy completely.

When i was shorting this market at 11.600 the last time we were there a month ago, the sentiment was extremely bullish and people were telling i was crazy,and funny thing is, many of those same people were calling me crazy that i turned into a short term bull expecting the price could maybe even reach the 9K's. And after a big pump like this unexperienced traders tend to think that THIS was it, because the move was so strong and now it was obvious that it was an accumulation phase SO that HAS to mean that this was THE low we were waiting for.

I tend to get slightly emotional when i trade the short time frames, but the bigger picture TA wise but even more FA wise, i am not emotional at all. I have a bigger picture game plan which i can adjust at any time when needed (just like these 2 weeks). And if we go to the 9K's and are able to break the 10K, i will adjust my game plan again, just like i mentioned in my analysis. I just don't believe for a second that big institutional money, is getting in this market, not for a second! The only institutional money that has entered are big players who are draining this market with there moves, exactly like they did today. There is still to much wrong with this market for serious players to invest. Not saying it WON'T happen, just saying it's much to soon IMHO.

If you look back to my older analysis, i was already a bear at the 5K to 9K ( was not only shorting it but i was a bear). I was still very new to this market, until i figured out what the game plan was of the crypto world. And i adjusted the whole view and said we could go higher and higher with the pump and dump techniques making the whole world addicted to crypto's. I am almost ready to post an educational post about this, will post it soon. I can keep going on for hours, but i am leaving it with this :)
評論: Bulls are trying to make a small parabolic move to break out of the bull flag and push higher now. I hope they do, but i think it's much to soon. I think we will stay a day between the 7600 and 8100/8200. As i am writing this it seems it dropped below that blue line, so it could cool down now and go more sideways from here

And guys, if you think i deserve it with giving you great insights (even though i did not give away all my secrets) with how the market works and what was happening the last 2 weeks. Put me back on the nr 1 spot :) but only if you think i deserve it :)
評論: Bulls are really feeling like it, this move is showing more strength as we speak. Making a small bull flag right now.
But be aware of the nasty games from the whales, not saying its a guarantee it will happen, but just be aware
評論: That small bull flag got bigger now showing the high bullish momentum it had has dropped now. For the ones who are not in it yet, i can't give you advice on where to enter, because little shake out's happen all the time. What i can say is, the 7500ish has to hold for this bullish move.
評論: Looked like an attempt to break higher, but seems to be failing. I don't think the market is ready to look up the 8400 today. I hope it does while i still have my long position from the 6710, but i don't think so. I think we need to see some more sideways action, to shake the overbought weight from the price.
Don't stare blindly at the flag, it could change to any shape.
評論: Bulls just keep pushing it higher :) They really don't feel the need to make a higher low it seems. These levels start to get tricky now, this can't go on forever of course. If we do push higher from here and get towards the 8300/8400 i will close half my position from the 6710.
評論: I have to say, i have not seen this market so strong for quite some time now. Very difficult to make a trade on this time frame, almost useless. If i would gamble, i would say the 8200 is to early and we should make a higher low somewhere

I might be taking a break for a few hours, so good luck trading and i will get back later today.

Don't forget to like if you appreciate my updates.

評論: This flag suggest we could drop towards the 7800/7900, but this market is still pretty strong, that's the thing about this market, FOMO plays a big part.
評論: If price drops below the 8000, an ugly H&S COULD be triggered that can take us towards the 7800/7700. But the market is still very strong, There are still buyers getting in at these prices.
評論: I have posted a new analysis
Follow me on Twitter for updates here on TradingView: @botje11TV


What do you think about this?
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Such a refresh from the other two top click bait idiots that so deprestly want their oringinal senerio to play out for egos sake
+7 回覆
botje11 Boss_Coyote
@Boss_Coyote, LOL :)
+2 回覆
zr0s Boss_Coyote
@Boss_Coyote, ...but those 2 and their flock play a very important role in the sentiment gauge. If one wrote an algorithm to quantify, the indicator would be bulletproof!
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@zr0s, hahaha so true.
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Hello Botje,

yes this little H & S I saw as well. But BTC might work furthermore on this H & S,



and this could bring us near 7200.

We will see.

Best whishes ,

Sascha
+3 回覆
botje11 Lilalisa
@Lilalisa, Could very well happen. Anything above 7200/7000 is still bullish
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@Lilalisa, GREAT ANALYSIS! Refreshing to actually trust what I'm reading
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i believe we go to 7600-7800 first to make a 4th wave in my count, then up again to 8400-8500 to finish the 5th
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