To hodl or not to hodl?

2020年6月8日

"Not to hodl" arguments:

1. Once again people are in the Moon phase.
That's never a good sign.

2. The downtrend line (red line) proved to be a hard resistance.
It happened 2 more times before.

3. The RSI shows that the 2017 bull run started in December 2016 when it started picking for the entire year.
Now we can't see signs of RSI doing similar movements.

4. MACD could go down.

5. It took too much time to reach a 10000$ resistance which it still didn't have enough force to close on.



"To hodl" arguments:

1. MACD justified the down wave (red wave).
Still, we need to wait for the short line to change direction.

2. RSI is in the no-mans zone.
It's hard to tell will it pop up or fall.

3. It's harder to mine.
We must take into consideration the fact that Bitcoin just halved its mining reward.
Till now, every time this had a huge impact on bitcoin's price.

4. Still above 50 EMA

5. Broke the purple downtrend line



In this chart, I've tried to find when there could be another bull run.
The vertical blue lines show the dates when there could be action.
But who knows...


Conclusion,
IMO, selling is the worst option since there's a lot to miss out on if the price explodes. With cryptocurrency, nobody would be surprised by that move.
Hodling is pretty safe only if you understand the potential Bitcoin has.

When to buy?
By now, you should already have bought some.
I will place buy orders at 6300$, 6000$, 5800$, and 5500$. And I won't mind if they don't fill since I wouldn't sell.
The 300 EMA plays as strong support, so this could be the lowest it will go.
In the past 2 years, the best time to buy BTC was the range between 200 EMA and 300 EMA.