Phase 1: "They" buy BTC with fiat (aka: accumulation).
Phase 2: buy alts with BTC (aka: pump).
Phase 3: sell alts to buy back BTC . This leads to distribution of alts without significant drop in their price, since BTC price will go up at a fairly slow and steady pace due to buyback.
Phase 4: sell BTC for fiat. At this phase alts price crash at a much higher speed than BTC , providing opportunity for accumulation.
- repeat phase 1 to 4
I have marked each phase on the chart. Black is BTC and blue is Ripple.
I think these phases can appear in different time frames. Sort of like fractals.
What do you think about this theory?
FYI: I am a researcher and I am not easy to convince without evidence.I don't believe in 99% of popular conspiracy theories. However, I am extremely skeptical about Crypto market. I am a techie so I had a positive bias toward Crypto technology. As soon as I got into this market, I completely changed my mind about the usefulness of these currencies. Perhaps, the notorious tether is the most useful currency in terms of utility, which can be seen in its relatively high "transaction volume"/"market cap" ratio. Or anything like Tether e.g. MKR . Some privacy-oriented coins are also good for, you know ... . The rest of these coins are there for gamblers like me or whales/cartels/market makers like Spoofy.
There were countless number of such actions on April 8th with order amounts above 5k which disappeared immediately.
This picture shows the breakout moment. Usually, alts appreciate in value when BTC goes up. What you see in this picture is that they went down right at the breakout moment. What I can infer from this is that the alts and Bitcoin operators are the same people or they work in coordination. This signals the start of phase 3 which could last a few days. I don't have all the pieces of the puzzle yet but I hope to figure it out with your help.
The same can be said for many things like the cyclic nature of animal populations and I believe then why not financial markets? And crypto is a very unique market with extreme networking effects (hype). It is completely uncontrolled and the information being sent between participants can be as fantastical without any limitations. Here truth < lies. So maybe it only looks like it's being controlled by an intelligence.
That last step btw creates what is known as a feedback loop, when the fiat earned in Phase 4 is used to buy BTC in Phase 1. This can create chaotic effects. Assuming this manipulation is being run continuously by AI software, this process would eventually become more unpredictable with time and lead to extreme divergence from the mean, some larger than others (bull runs or spikes for instance....). However I maintain that the same effects can be achieved by millions of biological bots (humans) performing pretty much the same algorithm you outline.
This is all very wishy washy what I describe here but I do think the crypto markets would be a really interesting research area from a maths/chaos perspective due to the kind of relationships you talk about.
I do believe in emergent properties like mind as an emergent property of brain, and evolution as you mentioned it. However, I just cannot convince myself yet when it comes to Crypto market. I was one of the blind and brainwashed millennials. Without doing any research, I just jumped on the bandwagon, that the Crypto tech is the ultimate savior of mankind from tyranny of governments. I had no experience about trading. But, as soon as I got in, I realized that so many things are not right with this market behavior. Then, I found articles on the internet from people who shared the same views. It cannot be a coincidence that I, a biased Crypto-loving person, came to the same conclusions as many others. Here is an article about one of the instances of market manipulation: https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/15/researchers-finds-that-one-person-likely-drove-bitcoin-from-150-to-1000/ .
When you compare today's fractals with the 2013 fractals, you find little similarity. In addition, patterns of the coins traded on Bitfinex look very different from elsewhere. Why these emergent properties are not consistent? Isn't it because of a few are controlling the markets with different strategies?
The market behavior today looks much more natural than pre 2015.
It can also be that the entire crypto market is fake, I have considered this too, with the exchanges working together in a cartel like way controlling everything by bots. Given the 10 timespan it is not inconceivable that such a network could develop - but it would be extremely difficult to keep secret, things would go wrong (like the other day when OKex crashed and the exchange said it would just reverse all transactions and pretend like it didn't happen, that was pretty funny huh? just one exchange crashing like that and then saying nahh forget about it... weird, I didn't think trading was like that ;) )
on the other issue, I think you can find BTC fractals from 2011 that still appear in alt markets today, you can check my ideas to see what I mean.