cI8DH

A half-baked theory about crypto manipulation

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
3059 66 66
I am fairly new to this market. I have been trying to figure out how some are manipulating this market. This is what I understand so far.

Phase 1: "They" buy BTC             with fiat (aka: accumulation).
Phase 2: buy alts with BTC             (aka: pump).
Phase 3: sell alts to buy back BTC             . This leads to distribution of alts without significant drop in their price, since BTC             price will go up at a fairly slow and steady pace due to buyback.
Phase 4: sell BTC             for fiat. At this phase alts price crash at a much higher speed than BTC             , providing opportunity for accumulation.
- repeat phase 1 to 4

I have marked each phase on the chart. Black is BTC             and blue is Ripple.

I think these phases can appear in different time frames. Sort of like fractals.

What do you think about this theory?


FYI: I am a researcher and I am not easy to convince without evidence.I don't believe in 99% of popular conspiracy theories. However, I am extremely skeptical about Crypto market. I am a techie so I had a positive bias toward Crypto technology. As soon as I got into this market, I completely changed my mind about the usefulness of these currencies. Perhaps, the notorious tether is the most useful currency in terms of utility, which can be seen in its relatively high "transaction volume"/"market cap" ratio. Or anything like Tether e.g. MKR . Some privacy-oriented coins are also good for, you know ... . The rest of these coins are there for gamblers like me or whales/cartels/market makers like Spoofy.
評論: For those of you who haven't seen spoofing, this image is a screen shot from Bitfinex order book that shows spoofing. https://thoren22.imgur.com/all/
There were countless number of such actions on April 8th with order amounts above 5k which disappeared immediately.
評論: this is the correct image address: https://imgur.com/lrA3ynP
評論: Note that Bitcoin is making higher highs while Ripple is making lower highs. This perfectly fits my description of phase 3. In a smaller time frame, we have, probably, just entered phase 4 (ABC correction). Expect alts to lose values at a much higher rate than Bitcoin. It may take just a day or 2.

評論: In a larger time frame, phase 3 has begun. Time for the king to rule.
評論: Put your tinfoil hat on before reading.

This picture shows the breakout moment. Usually, alts appreciate in value when BTC goes up. What you see in this picture is that they went down right at the breakout moment. What I can infer from this is that the alts and Bitcoin operators are the same people or they work in coordination. This signals the start of phase 3 which could last a few days. I don't have all the pieces of the puzzle yet but I hope to figure it out with your help.

評論: larger image

評論: Another tinfoil update.

I have been following top TA's in TV for the last two months. With the exception of @botje11, most of them were wrong at critical moments. Right before 11.7K crash, they were shouting for the moon and calling for sub 6k when BTC failed to break the support 3 times. These people rarely offer alternative scenarios. They usually speak with strong conviction and some speak like oracles. They admit they were wrong when it is too late. Then they make couple of good predictions with poor risk-reward ratio. At this point, you trust them back until market reaches another reversal point and they make another major wrong prediction. This just smells fishy for me. If you are new to TV, I suggest you to go through previous TAs of people you are following and if they made wrong calls at these critical points (or at any point), unfollow them. They have probably confused you a lot already. My skeptic mind tells me that these people are connected to the operators. I do not suspect those who have bearish or bullish conviction, rather, those who flip flop at critical reversal moments.
評論: Confidence level: 2%
I did not have time to do a thorough research on correlations between longs, shorts and prices actions yet. I will publish an idea about it when I do my homework hopefully next week.
In my yesterday's update in a different idea, I gestimated how far up we would go if the log trendline breaks. It turned out to be very accurate (I am "certain" that it was just a coincidence). Based on the same gestimation method, I want to give you a sneak peak of my next tinfoil level 100 idea. The below 2h chart shows shorts, longs and BTC price in Bitfinex. We had couple of short squeezes recently which caused the shorts to go down quite a lot. The big squeeze on April 12 was accompanied by a lot of long covering (~12%), most of which probably belongs to those who were organizing the short squeeze. After this breakout and yesterday's breakout, we don't see longs going up. This, IMHO, is not a good sign. It shows that professional traders do not trust this market yet. Unlike retail FOMO you are feeling around you, FOMO/greed has not kicked in yet for the pros. However, fear is doing its job, manifested in shorts going down. In conclusion, this market is not a bull market yet. It is going up by retail money and short squeeze. Another reason that supports this idea is that we don’t see healthy corrections. The operators know that if the market corrects by e.g. 38%, there won’t be enough buyers to take the price back up to resume short-squeezing. Lack of proper pullbacks also increases the FOMO effect on retail buyers.
So how far can they keep doing this? my gestimation is that, if all the shorts close on Bitfinex (extremely unlikely), Bitcoin can gain maximum 1500 points. I think the operators will try to change the market sentiment as much as they can this way. When they are done with their squeeze, they’ll weigh the situation. If big money doesn’t flow in by then, bear market will resume but at a much slower rate. Why? Wait for it until next week.
Let me know what you think about this tinfoil theory.

Please like if you like. That will encourage me to do my homework for the next idea.

Also, don’t forget to read my status.



This is a possible bullish scenario if operators succeed in their mission. By @Rainman2

評論: This could be another example of phase 3;

評論: On Aptil 21st, I posted something about top TAs fooling people. It's happening again and it is just disgusting. I hope you didn't take losses following their advice. I just hate when some people are using this platform to drain the pockets of inexperienced traders. There is a simple rule for trade, don't buy the top and don't sell the bottom. If you missed a good entry, control your FOMO and wait for a pullback. Now, those aforementioned TAs are shouting moon moon. Not trying to spread FUD here. Stay alert, this whole rally can be a giant bull trap. Targets could be as high as 10.2k, 11.2k, 11.6k, or 13kish. Above that, it can possibly go to the moon or Mars and it will be a legit bull rally.
評論: A clarification: This theory is totally half-baked and needs more work. Do not assume it is correct before it is tested. Also, do not forget that this theory can work on different time frames like fractals.

The below chart has some food for thought. I am assuming that we are in a similar place as we were on Feb 18. If we dropped significantly, this assumption would be invalid. Still, the idea has some merit. The fact that April rally is about alts not Bitcoin.

評論: A quick update mostly my speculations. A few days back I wrote "When they are done with their squeeze, they’ll weigh the situation". Today was market evaluation day. That's why Bitcoin price moved organically. With its natural curvy ups and down and without many impulsive moves. I suspect that the FOMO test failed because the price did not go up much other than when they pumped it. At the time of writing, I am observing couple of spoofing actions... buy order of 2k, 2.5k, 3k and then removing them. They do spoofing when they are desperate in moving the market to the direction they want as well as when they try to distribute at high prices. As I am writing, the price dropped by 100 points, and it may drop even more.
評論: Following my previous update 10 minutes ago.

Another reason that indicates they are distributing is that shorts are not going up. The bear composite who was shorting the market early April is not causing this price drop. It's most likely the same composite who pumped the price, now distributing their BTC.

評論: Once again we see Bitcoin outperforming the alts in an up move. I posting this for documentation to bake the theory in the future. I cannot make a judgement on what is going on behind the scenes.

評論: BTC dominance seem to have bottomed on May 3 according to coinmarketcap. So it is likely that phase 3 has started when I posted my previous update in the same day. The consensus event is coming up soon and it can change the equations in favor of alts.

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage
評論: It seems my update was confusing. Phase 3 started on May 3 and ended when we hit 10k. Since then we r in phase 4. This is what I wrote to a friend in the comment re this whole theory.

"I think Phase 4 started after 10k drop. However, this is a "half-baked" theory. I need to do extensive research to bake it more. It requires collecting a lot of info. Some people are now helping me but our progress is slow due to lack of time.

There is still a chance that alts can see new highs because of the Consensus event. Also, BTC IMHO still has a chance (30% as of now, can change depending on momentum) to break 10k."
評論: In 15m TF, there is a div between BTC and alts. BTC is making lower lows, alts are not. This might be a signal that the reversal is near. So phase 4 is ending in small TF but might continue in the larger TF (the fractal nature of the theory)

評論: Once again we see alts giving a good signal on BTC. Most of them started pumping before BTC. Stellar being the exception. Stellar was not listed on Bitfinex until recently. So the operators most likely haven't started trading Stellar yet. I leave the conclusion to you.

評論: LTC (gray) and ETH(pinkish) seem to be the best indicators.
評論: This could be similar to the May 11 update above. Not sure yet because market looks really weak.

評論: @Cryptopile has an interesting theory. He thinks that Tether price and BTC pumps are correlated. I looked that two recent instances, and it seems Tether price starts dropping a bit earlier than BTC pumps. If you find more instances, I would be glad to hear about them in the comments.

https://i.imgur.com/I43BHZf.png



評論: Don't be shocked about longs dramatic drop. It happened in Feb as well.
@hkh222 what is the % indicator you posted recently?
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cI8DH almccann
@almccann, with percentage, u can compare different assets relative to each other. If u look at the grey and pink lines, they started going up slowly couple of minutes before BTC.
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Pretty nice! I had those thoughts many times but too lazy to made the study, so that is a good surprise to discover your work here.
At first, I just thought about studying this to distinguish different phase and correlation between btc and alt in order to spot early market signals.
Recently, same, I started to wonder if those strange actions on alt, was not because something will happen on btc and vice versa and if that was natural or a way to win on both side.
Keep up the good work ;)
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cI8DH Krauser
@Krauser, Thanks mate :)
This is a raw theory. It works to some extent. Especially if u look at it like fractals. The last signals I gave about phase 3 and 4 still hold true.
I posted this idea to get feedback so I could bake it more. In time, I will publish a two-third baked theory :D
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i also saw ETH as a good indicator coz he goes up befor everything else most of the time like u said befor BTC him self ... ur thought processe makes a lot of sence.
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cI8DH coingogo
@coingogo, I have a friend who developed an indicator based on LTC and ETH and I can confirm that these two coins are important in manipulation.
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On this theory its worth to verify:

On March 18 for many altcoins, great positions were taken. From this day onwards a trend line of high in several altcons began. Its thought that "they" first took low positions in the alticons, fornext pump the bitcoin.
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cI8DH fastjumpers
@fastjumpers, I am sorry but I don't understand what you mean.

My assumption was that if the market turns bullish on that day, they have a chance to make new highs, all Crypto including BTC.
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@hkh222, If "you" has the intention and money to create a pump in the market, and if the altcoins value the BTC, it is smart that "you" assume first position in the altcoins and then make the BTC value.

So, make a view of the new bullish trends that were formed after March 18, and you will find that many altcoins have changed the trend exactly on this particular day: March 18th.
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cI8DH fastjumpers
@fastjumpers, Among the top ones, Stellar and EOS began their rally on that day. The rest acted normal

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