BTCUSD: Supply/Demand analysis with probability calculation

We launched from the demand zone and encountered a weak supplyzone right above. I don't expect BTC to drop back into the demand zone, only to retrace to it as we see now. 3700 is the new bottom.

probability calculation:
Strength of move = 2/2
RR = 1/2
big picture = 1/2
retrace = 2/2
placement = 1/1
time at zone = 1/1
arrival = 1/1

adding up scores = 9, if less than 8, then don't take the trade.