VincentBoudewijn

Bitcoin back to 4.5k? Downtrend Fractal theory

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
Hello everyone,

I hope you're all doing fine and having a wonderful Easter.
Sadly my last prediction didn't work out further as we broke the major support line and plummeted into the abyss. We had followed that fractal for quite some time, but it did no longer when the major support broke.
Ok, downtrend. But what now? But what could be bitcoins             next move?

I have a new theory:

I noticed some traders comparing the 2014 downtrend to our downtrend now. And as many of fractals repeat I think that's actually not a bad idea.
One thing that I noticed during research of fractals is that many shapes repeat, but they distort over time, because a market starts to move faster or slower. In mutiple market cycles I found similiar shapes, just distorted/deformed. I believe that right now we move MUCH faster than back in 2014.

If we roughly follow the 2014 fractal linked with our market speed now. The bottom should be around 2.9k in Spring/Summer followed up by an accumulation phase that lasts from mid may to mid august. Where the average of the price lies around 4.5k.
The bull market could start from September.

Personnaly I don't think we are heading into a long crypto winter and here is why:
- There is a super large channel active that's here since the top of 2014. And as price moves between channels: We bumped the top of the super channel in December and are now heading to the bottom of the channel. I'd like you to take a look at how the fractal bottom matches with the lower part of the super channel.
- I noticed that the 2014 fractal fits onto our downtrend. But I had to speed it up. Weirdly it looks like we are correcting MUCH faster than back in 2014.


I hope you liked this analysis. Happy Trading.

Greetings,
Vincent
評論: Here is a look at the big channel which you can draw all the way from 2014

This is what I've been thinking will happen as well except I think the dip to 3k will happen very fast and will be more like 3500 because of all of the buy orders people will have in once it goes under 4k.
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Very nice chart.
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Of course, bears can change this scenario by becoming bullish. But they don't want that; they are enjoying the ease of raking in money using leverage in this strong bear market. They understandably want prices to go down as far as possible. But there is great risk in this: they just might kill this market off by making it so unattractive that investors won't want anything to do with it because of its high risk.
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If Bitcoin goes back to where it was before the run to 20k, then what will this suggest? It seems it would imply even a 4k Bitcoin is overvalued. When people who are stuck in trades because they bought in at higher prices begin to think they won't recover their money, they will lose all hope in this market and take whatever they can get. Thus, Bitcoin will plummet further, possibly sending it down below 3k. Then, all the greedy bears who got lucky in this market will begin to realize they have lost their bread and butter while the pros who know how to trade will continue making money somewhere else.
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