Lesson on trading, TA and Risk

G'day Cobbers and Shobbers,

How are we this morning, did many of you manage to make so profit yesterday?

I will start with a quick talk about Edges and trading strategy and how to be profitable from your charts.
First if you take a look at the chart linked below from yesterday you will notice I flipped outlooks as the day progressed, I also traded on these calls, some I got stopped out on at small losses, a few I made breakeven or small profit after fees, the last one I made a massive profit on, none of those trades were any better than the other. Seriously!

You have to look at your trades in the same way a Casino runs, lets look at the Roulette table for example on a black/red bet, now the "Edge" the Casino has in this situation is the 0 00 on the wheel, which gives the player a 47% chance of winning , the house at 47% plus the edge (Around 6%%) This edge over 10 bets this edge won't net the Casino much or anything at all but over millions of games, you can see the potential for profit.

Trading is the same, once you have a strategy and find an edge, weigh up the risk to reward ratio and it fits your plan, you trade it, win or lose it does not matter, because if you have a good solid strategy and solid risk and money management plan in place, the profit will come. Taking the emotion out of trading is the first thing you need to do to last, this also relates to doing Technical Analysis .

To be good at TA, you need to do more than just study and draw lines, you need to take out any preconceived Bias you have towards the market, be fluid and not stubborn. Big Egos and know it alls always fail, they are unable to admit when they are wrong and end up missing subconsciously the triggers and patterns that are going against their analysis, they filter out all the noise that is not in their favor and look for that which confirms their biases.

Just remember The Market can do anything. you can do your research, analyze and be confident in your trade to go in a certain direction but you can not expect it to, which is why we trade on probabilities, when you see an opportunity ( set by your strategy / Edge) you need to factor in all the data in front of you, decide if it fits your R/R ratio, find an entry and set an exit and stick to it, if you miss the entry then let it go and wait for the next opportunity, it may come back and you will get another chance. Know your exit (look for resistance/support) levels, factor these in with your strategy (be it breakouts or simple MA crosses) before you set you buys/sells and take profits along the way.


You will hear people talking about Risk all the time and it seems pretty simple but it isn't. A simple explanation can be setting Stops and not risking more than a percentage of your account equity but it is more than that and it also part of what makes markets move. Risk = Pain. Pain is what causes big runs, first goes the stop losses in a big move, then the overleveraged and then those whose pain threshold is pushed beyond the limits, you know this to be true, its why you end up selling off your position at the bottom and then it magically moves up again. This is why you don't risk more than you are willing to lose, and you really got to believe it or this pain will cause you to sell at the bottom, good traders don't deal with this pain because they trade within Risk, they trade without emotion, knowing that a loss matters not, they are a part of trading, your strategy, if followed properly will profit over time. Many fail because they don't follow their strategy, they over-leverage, the place position sizes way to large and small moves against there position causes pain, pain causes loss of confidence. You can see where I'm going with this.


Thanks for dropping by, hopefully, you garner something valuable from my post, be it educational or an idea towards a trade of your own. Please share, like and comment and engage with me, I am here to help.

Thank you! I really appreciated reading this. Much more valuable than 99% of the other advice I've read on TV.
excellent. Especially this paragraph "be fluid and not stubborn. Big Egos and know it alls always fail..."
+1 回覆
Nice post. Thanks for making it
TroyByrne samiswilf
@samiswilf, No problem. Thanks
@TroyByrne Good read, thanks!
TroyByrne The_Real_AMF
@The_Real_AMF, Cheers
+1 回覆
The_Real_AMF TroyByrne
@TroyByrne, took another long in hopes we bounce back here. good luck to you as well
TroyByrne The_Real_AMF
@The_Real_AMF, Good Luck, she is coming down pretty easily, hoping that trend line holds. Or look out below.
+1 回覆
The_Real_AMF TroyByrne
@TroyByrne, To you as well. Trying not to freak out...yet.
TroyByrne The_Real_AMF
@The_Real_AMF, Breathe, if it hits your stop, so be it. Move on to the next trade.
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