AlexCH

BTC/USD- Opinion: Correction Ends at appx. $5K Within Two Weeks

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
Hi friends,
I hope you are all doing well.

Today I am sharing my thoughts on BTC/USD using a 6 hour chart.
This idea is based on wave counts and simple trendlines , there is no use of indicators.


Thoughts:
- Long term trend: up.
- Medium term trend: down.
- Short term trend: down.
- A giant descending wedge corrective pattern.
- We are in wave B or C of E.
- Finishing wave E will complete the corrective pattern and the bull market should resume.
- Buy zone is the green box which is appx. $5K, which also falls into .786 ret (you can visit my "My Analysis for BTC 2018 Q1 - Short to $8200" post in the related ideas below).
- The time frame is about 0.5 - 2 weeks. It will be the BEST opportunity to build long term portfolio.

To be completely honest I will be pretty sad to see the bear market end. Although I remain market neutral when I trade, I truly believe bear markets are more profitable if you understand how to short. It will be quite boring when the bull trend resumes let me tell you that, it is not that interesting when 'EVERYONE' is winning.

All in all,
Good luck :)
交易進行:

In my opinion wave B of E has completed.
Wave B of E was an ending diagonal, forming an ascending wedge.

I think we are now falling out of the wedge, which means we are now in wave C of E, the last leg of the corrective pattern.
評論:

Leaning towards 5K while remembering A:C=1:1 will give 3K target.
Solution? Ladder your buys.
評論:

This count is better than mine.
Result should be the same, but I did break a rule in wave A.
評論: Bullish: closing above 9100.
Bearish: closing below 8100.

Currently: No man's land

Opinion: obviously still bearish.
評論: ^i mean 9400*
手動結束交易: All short positions closed with small win. No trade now.
Do you think alt's like xrp will follow?
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AlexCH userbeauty
@userbeauty, i'm quite confident that it will.
+1 回覆
agree!
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Wrong already
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AlexCH Zarathustra_III
+2 回覆
You had me till the last paragraph...then it made question all your work...
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AlexCH retiringsoon1
@retiringsoon1, like i care~
+6 回覆
@AlexCH, you shouldnt...you are the only winner in the end right...
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AlexCH retiringsoon1
@retiringsoon1, i don't see your logic here. From point A to point B, bear markets usually travel faster (slope is steeper) because pain supercedes greed. Why can't I like to play bear markets?
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@AlexCH, it is not that...you said you dont like everyone is winning,so you are winning is fine but not enough and others should lose as well.
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