BITCOIN Trust the 4H MA50/MA200 pattern

2021年1月3日

First of all congratulations hodlers. Another benchmark, the very important $30000, has been breached! There is every reason to be excited yet again, but rest assured, there are also several signs and patterns to consider for this 1st month of 2021.

Today Bitcoin made yet another high, almost hitting 35k, but since we see a correction. Everyone must be wondering how low it can go this time. Well the 4H MA50 and MA200, as well as the LMACD and RSI (on the 4H time-frame), may give a few interesting pointers.

** The MA50/ MA200 on 4H **
As you see on the chart, BTC has been supported by the MA50 (blue trend-line) on the 4H time-frame since December 12. During that period, the price made contact with that line only once (December 23). Prior to the 4H MA50, BTC had the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as Support from November 26 to December 12 (made contact twice). As seen on the chart, I've distinguished the 4H MA50 and MA200 holding phases, and I will explain right away why.

** The RSI and LMACD **
The start and end on the two MA50 holding phases, are exactly when the RSI hits its Resistance Zone (red flags). On top of that, the LMACD sequences of those two phases are identical (see (a), (b), (c)). On the other hand the MA200 holding phase, is below the RSI Resistance Zone, with no registered contact, while also being below the RSI Support Zone (MA50 Support Zone), noted in green.

** Conclusion **
But what does the above tell us? Assuming the post MA50 holding sequence (November/ December) is replicated, then BTCUSD may have made a top or make one near the -0.236 Fib extension and if the 4H MA50 breaks, find Support on the 4H MA200 (around the 0.5 Fib retracement level), for a roughly 3 week consolidation.

Do you think these sequence can provide a framework to trade for the next month? Are you waiting for a 0.5 Fibonacci correction or are you buying on a daily basis? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!


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