Has it been enough blood?

2019年5月11日

Lately, many people were screaming for the beginning of the next BTC bull run. Fear and greed index made a new ATH with 76 out of 100 points as I am writing this text. Bitcoin is crushing resistance levels like they aren´t any and wide spread theories like the golden cross theory or the 4-year-cycle theory got huge attention in media (especially on YouTube).

And even though I have a lot of respect for people like Bob Loukas, I don´t think we are in a new bull run. Why? Because I strongly believe that a lot of people focus on the wrong point in time of the 2014 chart and that we will see a lot more blood in the streets than we did, back in November 2018. And by the way.. Even more people tend to forget the most important thing in this market: Market makers

Imo, the right way to get a grasp of the current situation is to try to think like a market maker.

Market makers in crypto are most likely the exchanges and trading platforms themselves. They make the most money by liquidating shorts and longs whenever they can. So what would they do now? Now, when everybody is screaming for a bull run? After they created Hopium (price action of April 1st) , they ride the wave upwards as retail traders (or the so-called dumb money) are joining the party. And while everyone is on "Hopium", they are on "Knowium" and cash out slowly with the next step already set up on the horizon: filling their own bags at lower prices!

Imagine a dumb to 3k or lower and what it would cause in terms of prices?

I think chances are that we will see exactly this scenario in the near future. But like always, this is no trading advice! :)

2019年5月12日

註釋

Yesterday, Marco Santori, President and Chief Legal Officer of Blockchain, the world's largest software platform for digital assets, tweeted about upcoming crypto regulations of the U.S. government:

"1/ Today, the US Treasury published MASSIVE new guidance on crypto regulation. It has *major* implications for wallets, exchanges, ICO issuers, dApps, DEXes... OH MY (um I'm gonna tweet about it)"

I know, many people here think that such news won´t affect price, but in my opinion they do. Why? Because they create a certain kind of psychological level and feeling - similar to the advertising industry. It´s very hard to make objective decisions, once you´ve read bearish or bullish articles.

Anyways, what I want to show is, that there´s definitely a lot of stuff going on behind the scenes. Therefore, be VERY cautious about your decisions and don´t get caught up in FOMO or FUD. Especially now, when everybody is heading for the moon, 4 year cycles and all this other stuff. It´s always an option that the majority is wrong.

2019年5月13日

註釋

A possible scenario for how this rally could end:

It would be pretty obvious, maybe even too fishy, for the manipulator(s) to just sell BTC when it went up like this. The sneakier way would be a manipulative pump of one specific altcoin. Once the retail traders notice that, they will pull their money out of BTC, as well as whales. And while BTC drops on the sideline, the spotlight is fully on the pump of the altcoin - until whales cash out and the entire market drops back down to a natural level.

My guess for this altcoin: XRP. Everyone is expecting a pump and nobody will ever doubt anything. Nobody, but me ;)

Maybe just total nonsense, maybe not. Stay safe!