Predicting the BTC Halving by searching for repeating patterns

2020年2月10日

So was bored and decided to spend several hours looking at the weekly chart with few indicators and look for repeating patterns and correlations that occur around halving time.

Did I find any? Sure! Is it my imagination? Maybe yes, maybe no.. since data is available only since 2012 we get stats for 2 halvings based on which we can make some predictions for the third one. Not perfect but
I have something to work with.

The indicators in game are:
TD Sequential, fisher transform and ifish rsi.

Additional visualization:
Added green lines where we have a perfected sell setup TD9, or sell setup, and yellow line where we have td13 countdown.

Observations:
We can clearly see that TD9 AND TD13 over time show the market trend - sell setups if price goes up, and buy setups if price goes down.
Very easy to see is also fisher transform as most sell setups in bull market occur above values 1.
Ifish also confirms most sell setups occur if value above 0.80-0.90
Also majority of perfected setups in bullmarket end up retesting the higher highs - which makes them a very good indicator when the price will go higher.
On the other side most buy setups and up retesting the lower lows.. which makes them perfect for showing its downtrend.

Also if looking at the green lines which present a sell setup TD9 perfected (mostly) and yellow which represent the TD countdown TD13, you see that there is a visual pattern - sort of.
Many more correlations.. go check it out :)

So based on the observations and looking at the latest TD countdown coming to TD12 - I would predicts the following for btc during and after halving:

Data suggests we could go to 10855$ or above in this run to complete the current countdown. After completion we will possibly have a pullback getting us ready for a new TD9 Perfected sell setup at a similar or higher price of the last TD13 trigering a rally towards or above 22000$ after the halving; perhaps nearing the end of 2020. Next year as TD9 is trigered again we should double again.. until we reach the ATH.

The countdown should not get canceled if bull market is real.. but if its canceled then it would suggest bear market is not over.

If strong bull trend and green and yellow lines are not more than 5 bars or so apart. - then it indicates we'll get a new ATH after which massive selloff will happen after the last TD9 you'll see it as price plunges way deep.. this will mark the end of rally and the next TD9 perfected sell setup will happen at arround 60-50%+ lower price quite some time later.

I intentionally ignore the buy setups as there are few.. and usually just appear during bear market on weekly chart. Basicly seeing them red - indicates the pattern of a bearish market.

Also Each successive TD9 Perfected sell setup combined with TD13 countdown - should provide a 60-100%+ boost of price around the halving - if history repeats. -

Now lets wait and see if we get the next completed TD countdown of TD13 :) Maybe everything is real after all :) buahaah